TTF settled EUR 62.4/MWh on Wednesday 22 July and held EUR 61.9 into Thursday 23 July 1, its highest since the US-Israel-Iran war began and up from EUR 59.135 on 20 July . EUA carbon broke a fresh high of EUR 83.20/tonne on 22 July 2, up from EUR 80.14 on 16 July . Both inputs the 20 July inversion turned on are still climbing.
German day-ahead had reached EUR 156 on 16 July, and the spark turned briefly positive ; a week on, gas and carbon have pushed back past it. At roughly 0.2 tonnes of CO2 per MWh, EUA at EUR 83 alone adds about EUR 16.6/MWh to a CCGT's marginal cost before the gas leg, so carbon, not gas alone, drives the inversion this week. The spark reverses only if German day-ahead rises to meet the gas-and-carbon stack, and the 21 to 23 July tape does not show it.
That same German gas-set stack compressed the France-Germany day-ahead spread to EUR 5.37/MWh on 23 July, Germany clearing EUR 117.65 against France's EUR 112.28 3. On 30 June the spread held around EUR 71.50 even after French output cuts ; three weeks of gas-and-carbon strength have closed almost all of it. EDF's reactors are running, yet TTF at EUR 62 plus EUA at EUR 83 lifts the German marginal price above France's nuclear-set floor. The German stack, not the French fleet, sets continental clearing this week.
