OIES is an independent research centre affiliated with the University of Oxford, founded in 1982. It publishes authoritative gas, oil, and LNG market analysis used by governments, regulators, and energy traders.

What did OIES say about LNG supply in 2026?

OIES Quarterly Gas Review Issue 32 (April 2026) assessed the Q1 2026 global LNG supply cut at approximately 20%, driven by the Hormuz closure, and calculated the EU needs 6 bcm more than it injected in Summer 2025 to reach adequate winter storage.Source: OIES Quarterly Gas Review Issue 32

How does OIES differ from the IEA on energy analysis?

The IEA is an intergovernmental body with 31 member governments; OIES is an independent academic institute at Oxford with no government principals. Both publish LNG and gas market data; their Q1 2026 figures corroborate each other, which analysts treat as a tighter consensus estimate.

Background

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) is an independent research centre affiliated with the University of Oxford, founded in 1982. It publishes the Quarterly Gas Review, Oxford Energy Comment, and Oxford Energy Forum series, cited by the IEA, European Commission, and commodity traders worldwide. It is politically independent, funded by a membership network of energy companies, governments, and financial institutions, and is not a government body. Its research fellows include specialist economists and energy policy analysts whose work informs national injection planning, contract pricing, and regulatory responses to supply shocks.

OIES's April 2026 Quarterly Gas Review Issue 32 quantified the Q1 global LNG supply cut at approximately 20% and calculated the EU needs 6 bcm more than its Summer 2025 injection for adequate winter storage. Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148 (April 2026) framed the Iran shock as the most disruptive energy episode since the 1970s, with papers projecting multi-year rather than transitional disruption. OIES's June 2026 Comment (Fulwood, Honore, Sharples) revised the outlook further: the central case is EU storage reaching only 70% by 1 November against the mandated 80%, based on a 2.1 bcm per month net European LNG shortfall through October. The Comment shows TTF forwards averaging USD 14.72/MMBtu for 2026, well below the USD 20/MMBtu the authors warn may be needed to choke sufficient demand if Hormuz remains closed. OIES's independent corroboration of IEA data narrows the uncertainty band on supply assumptions that policymakers use for injection planning.

The 26-29 June Hormuz escalation and verbal US-Iran stand-down invalidated OIES's clean-reopening base case: its own closed-through-October stress scenario now reads as the more likely autumn trajectory. Four days after the stand-down, IMF PortWatch counted only 27-43 daily Hormuz transits against an 84 pre-crisis baseline, and QatarEnergy ran at roughly 35% of its 77 MTPA nameplate, short of its guided 50%-within-a-month pace. Lloyd's List traced the shortfall to strait logistics, not diplomacy: escort convoys clear only three to four tankers a day on seven to eight warships, a ratio that cannot scale without more vessels in the corridor, capping how fast OIES's own refill forecasts can converge with a reopened corridor.