Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Independent Oxford energy research centre; authoritative LNG and gas market analysis for governments, traders.
OIES cut its own EU gas storage forecast again on 27 July 2026, to 72 bcm or 67% full by 1 November, the lowest projection the institute has recorded for that date since 2012.
Last refreshed: 3 August 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Will EU gas storage actually hit 70% by November or fall further short?
Timeline for Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Published a 72 bcm EU-27 storage projection for 1 November
European Energy Markets: Oxford puts EU gas at 67% on 1 NovemberMentioned in: Spark stays negative, French edge erodes
European Energy MarketsProjected a 69-70% November storage landing against the 80% floor
European Energy Markets: EU storage tops 50%, still behind 2025Hormuz stand-down has not reopened the strait
European Energy MarketsPublished a June Comment charting EU storage to 74.3 bcm by November on a mid-year Hormuz reopening assumption now invalidated
European Energy Markets: OIES base case becomes its stress caseBackground
OIES is an independent energy research centre affiliated with the University of Oxford, founded in 1982 and funded by a membership network of energy companies, governments and financial institutions rather than any single government. Its Quarterly Gas Review, Oxford Energy Comment and Oxford Energy Forum series are cited by the IEA, the European Commission and commodity traders as a reference against which official forecasts and market prices are checked.
The institute occupies a distinctive niche between academic rigour and market-relevant analysis: its Oxford affiliation gives it reach across policy, finance and academic circles that sector consultancies lack, while its Gas Programme publishes the specific bcm and percentage figures that traders and EU officials treat as a working consensus for winter adequacy.
In April 2026 it put the Q1 global LNG supply cut at roughly 20%, a figure that has since aligned with IEA tracking data, and it has repeatedly revised its own storage-fill projections downward through the year rather than defending an earlier call.
Its own storage call keeps falling
OIES's central case for EU storage was 70% full by 1 November when it published its June Quarterly Gas Review, already ten points below the mandatory floor and dependent on a Hormuz reopening.
The 26 to 29 June escalation broke that assumption. By 27 July the institute's Gas Programme, presenting jointly with Centrica's Ricky Hill, had cut the projection again, to 72 bcm or 67% full, with stocks on 1 July already 10.6 bcm below the prior year. That would be the lowest 1 November level OIES has recorded since 2012, sitting below even the institute's own closed-through-October stress scenario.