EUA
Tradeable permit to emit one tonne of CO2 under the EU Emissions Trading System.
EUA carbon held flat on 27 July 2026 even as gas and power both fell sharply, evidence the permit price answers to the EU's cap-tightening calendar rather than daily weather and demand swings.
Last refreshed: 3 August 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Why did EUA carbon prices push above EUR 78 despite the EU's May allocation increase?
Timeline for EUA
Record solar takes the German spark negative
European Energy MarketsDrifted in a EUR 79.4 to EUR 82.0 range with no confirmed settlement print
European Energy Markets: German gas plants back in profitMentioned in: German spark spread hits cycle worst
European Energy MarketsHeld above EUR 83 through an 8 per cent gas swing and a 41 per cent power swing
European Energy Markets: Carbon sits still as gas and power divePriced at EUR 83.40/tonne on the day the spark spread briefly turned positive
European Energy Markets: Friday's German spark briefly broke evenBackground
EUA is the tradeable permit underpinning the EU Emissions Trading System: one allowance grants the right to emit one tonne of CO2-equivalent, issued by auction or free allocation to installations under the scheme's compliance obligations. Running since 2005 across four phases, the ETS is now in Phase 4 (2021-30), which accelerated the annual cap-reduction rate and extended coverage to shipping and a growing tranche of aviation. Emissions Left uncovered attract a EUR 100-a-tonne non-compliance penalty. EUAs trade principally on ICE Endex and EEX, with the December-dated future serving as the benchmark contract.
The Market Stability Reserve is the scheme's supply-management valve, withholding or cancelling allowances once the number in circulation exceeds a set threshold. Because the annual cap itself shrinks every year under the Fit for 55 revision, the mechanism builds structural upward pressure on price that outlasts any single benchmark adjustment.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, in full compliance since 1 January 2026, extends the EUA price signal to imported steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen and electricity by pricing certificates to the weekly average EUA price, while free allocations to the equivalent domestic sectors are progressively withdrawn as CBAM phases in.
It keeps defying the wider price slide
EUA lost roughly 13% in a single session on 11 May 2026, when a routine European Commission free-allocation benchmark revision cut the market's consensus, but had clawed back to EUR 77.46 by 28 May, evidence that Phase 4's shrinking annual cap, not the one-off adjustment, remained the dominant force on the price.
On 27 July 2026 EUA settled unmoved even as TTF gas and German power both fell sharply on the day, the clearest recent instance of carbon trading to its own cap-tightening timetable rather than the daily weather and demand shocks that move fuel and electricity.