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Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Three ships a day in an 'open' strait

2 min read
09:24UTC

Kpler counted exactly three transits on each of 22, 23 and 24 July. CENTCOM's formal position is that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit.

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Key takeaway

Three independent trackers put Hormuz traffic at a fraction of pre-war levels while CENTCOM calls it open.

Kpler, the maritime data provider, recorded exactly three vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on each of 22, 23 and 24 July, down from more than 20 a day before 15 July 1. CENTCOM's formal position is that the strait remains "open for transit".

Both statements can be true at once, and the gap between them is the thing worth understanding. Hormuz is 33km wide at its narrowest and carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil; transit passage through it is a right in international law that no naval force has formally revoked. Whether a master exercises that right depends on his charterer, his crew and his underwriters, none of whom are bound by CENTCOM's characterisation. Kpler's count includes vessel-level detail, among them the very large crude carrier New Giant carrying about two million barrels of Basrah crude for China 2.

Two other providers reach the same place by different routes. S&P Global counted 40 vessels across 17 to 19 July, about 13 a day, roughly half the previous week's rate. Lloyd's List put tanker and gas-carrier movements specifically at 30 in the week to 20 July against 90 in the week to 13 July, part of the 66% weekly fall we reported on 21 July . Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, on the record, puts flows at about 15% of pre-war levels 3. Three commercial datasets built for paying clients rather than for public argument agree on direction and on magnitude.

The insurance market reached this conclusion first and has not revisited it. War-risk rates on Hormuz transits were repriced in mid-July, when the broker Marcus Baker of Marsh quoted them against a count of eight vessels a day , and they have held at that level while physical traffic fell to three. Underwriters priced a closure the traffic has since caught up with. The exposure now sits in what has not been priced: a single mine strike or boarding in the Larak-Qeshm corridor, the route vessels use to stay outside CENTCOM's written blockade order, could push mainstream insurers to withdraw cover rather than reprice it, which would close the strait commercially without any government declaring it closed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US military says the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which much of the world's oil passes, is "open for transit". But three separate companies that track ship movements say otherwise. Kpler recorded just three ships a day passing through between 22 and 24 July, down from more than 20 a day before 15 July. S&P Global counted about 13 ships a day in a similar recent stretch, roughly half the week before. In practice, almost nobody is sailing through, whatever the official language says, because the insurance cost of doing so has become too high for most shipping companies to accept.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

"Open for transit" and "commercially viable to transit" are two different claims, and the gap between them is what three trackers are actually measuring. CENTCOM's statement addresses the first, whether the US Navy will contest passage; the P&I clubs, the insurers that underwrite almost all commercial shipping, address the second, and they set premiums based on assessed risk of loss, not on any government's characterisation of the strait's status.

Once those premiums cross a threshold where insurance cost exceeds freight margin, as the current range does for many operators, rational shipowners divert regardless of what CENTCOM says, because the decision is made in a London or Scandinavian underwriting office, not in Washington or Tehran.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A near-90% collapse in daily transits despite an "open" designation shows insurance markets, not naval statements, are setting the real terms of access to Hormuz.

  • Consequence

    Sustained traffic collapse compounds the Cape of Good Hope diversions already under way, adding weeks to voyage times for cargo bound for Europe and Asia.

Sources:Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)·Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)·The National
Mentions:Kpler →S&P Global Platts →Strait of Hormuz →Larak-Qeshm →China →Lloyd's List →Marsh →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →
First Reported In

Update #162 · Munitions, not Iran, halted US bombing

Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)· 26 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Three ships a day in an 'open' strait
Legal openness and physical traffic have separated, and every insurer, charterer and Gulf exporter is pricing the second one.
Led to
Hormuz crossings fall by two thirds
Continues the collapse in Hormuz transits first measured at a 66% weekly fall on 21 July.
Occurred 21 Jul 2026
Read story →
Brent clears $87 as Hormuz traffic thins
War-risk premiums Marsh quoted against 17 July's transit count have held at 3-10% of hull value while transits fell further.
Occurred 17 Jul 2026
Read story →
Drone hits US gas vessel at Damietta
The Hormuz transit collapse (ID:5346) is why traffic has shifted to the Mediterranean corridor the Damietta drone strike touched.
Occurred 29 Jul 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Underwriters can price Houthi strikes because the group announces its targets, but an unclaimed drone at Damietta and a mandatory Iranian insurance scheme both deny them a pattern to price against. War-risk premiums are increasingly being set by the absence of a claimant, not the scale of the damage.
Jordan
Jordan
Azraq absorbed its fourth Iranian strike in seven weeks, again drawing no direct Jordanian retaliation, only an American one. Amman's exposure, hosting US basing without the Patriot density of Gulf allies, has not changed even as the war around it widens.
Houthi movement
Houthi movement
The Houthis' 20 July blockade of Saudi-linked shipping is the injury Riyadh's new 43-nation coalition directly answers, yet the group itself was never asked to join and remains outside every proposal on the table. Sanaa-aligned commentators call the coalition a paper reassurance for insurers rather than a deployable force.
Egypt's Cabinet
Egypt's Cabinet
Egypt confirmed the Damietta blaze was an attack, not an accident, on soil the war had never touched before. Cairo now faces an unclaimed threat to a facility supplying roughly 7% of its domestic gas, with no author to hold accountable and no pattern yet to defend against.
Oman
Oman
Muscat is running the only channel Iran will use, a voluntary Hormuz fee modelled on Malacca, but stayed out of Saudi Arabia's new naval coalition entirely. Oman's mediating leverage depends on treating Hormuz as shared and non-exclusive, the opposite of what Tehran is now demanding of it.
Iraq's Prime Minister
Iraq's Prime Minister
Al-Zaidi cancelled his first official Riyadh visit and convened the Coordination Framework, the coalition that keeps him in power and whose factions sit inside the PMF that Saudi jets just struck. He is caught between a five-year Saudi investment relationship and armed groups inside his own state he does not fully control.