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Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

2 min read
09:24UTC

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since May, and traders tied the jump straight to the tanker strikes in the Bab al-Mandab.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent cleared $100 because the southern reroute closed, not because the strikes on Iran grew heavier.

Brent Crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since 26 May, rising about 6.7% to roughly $100.37 by 1401 GMT, with traders tying the move directly to the previous day's tanker strikes⁠1. The benchmark had closed at $92.09 only a day earlier, the top of a slow four-session climb.

Brent is the international price for seaborne crude, the benchmark behind roughly two-thirds of the world's traded oil, and it carries structural exposure to shipping chokepoints that inland grades do not. For a fortnight it had shrugged off vertical escalation, more nights and a rising toll, because the barrels kept moving through the dark fleet and the Omani-shore reroute south of Hormuz, which kept cargoes reaching buyers even as the northern strait was contested.

A strike in the Bab al-Mandab removes that release valve, so the market is now pricing two contested chokepoints at once rather than one. One caution belongs on the print. Oil has spiked and faded before in this war, clearing $87 on the July blockade before sliding as cargoes found a way round. The second tanker, the Layla, remains an unconfirmed Houthi claim, and a single denied strike could take the premium out as quickly as it went in.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent Crude is the main international price used to set oil costs around the world. On 23 July it went above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, jumping sharply in a single day. Traders say the jump is a direct reaction to the tanker strikes: when ships carrying oil through dangerous waters become targets themselves, the oil gets more expensive because it costs more to ship and insure. This matters at the petrol pump and in home energy bills. Oil prices this high, if they hold, tend to filter through to what people pay to fill a car or heat a home within weeks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Brent's structural exposure to chokepoint risk is built into the benchmark itself: it prices seaborne North Sea and Gulf cargoes, unlike West Texas Intermediate, which moves overwhelmingly by pipeline and reacts far less to Gulf shipping risk.

The move above $100 also compounds a climb that was already under way before the Encelia strike, so the jump builds on an existing tightening rather than starting from a calm baseline.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Sustained Brent prices above $100 typically reach UK and European pump prices within two to four weeks, given normal refining and distribution lags.

  • Risk

    If insurers keep pricing Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz as active war zones, the premium embedded in Brent may not unwind quickly even if strikes pause, unlike the rapid snapback seen after Abqaiq in 2019.

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Reuters· 23 Jul 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
The JMIC, the US-led naval reporting cell, rated the Hormuz threat "severe" in its 25 October advisory, as reported by gCaptain, and warned of possible renewed mining. Eight days earlier it found no substantiation for the Guards' mine claims, while US-facilitated transits ran at about 34 a day.
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
The CPS charged two men under the National Security Act 2023 over the RAF Fairford incident, and Counter Terrorism Policing said it believes the foreign intelligence service involved is Iran's, LBC reported. The case now runs through the courts; both men are charged, not convicted.
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
The Houthis told people to leave Aden airport, in the government-held south, before a missile fell there on 28 October, AFP reported, and police reported a second attack that afternoon. The fight between Riyadh and the Houthis is landing on the south's main civilian airport.
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar-led mediators put new terms to Iran this week, which an Iranian official called "ideas, not a proposal". Riyadh framed the Tehran meeting as support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation, keeping Doha at the centre of the indirect channel.
Korea Shipowners' Association
Korea Shipowners' Association
The association said the ships Iran listed were sub-chartered to an overseas oil company, not owned by Sinokor, carried no South Korean crew, and that Sinokor was unaware of the warning. South Korea's shipowners are contesting whose vessels the notice covers before it takes effect.
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador, Mohammad Toutounji, and handed him a protest note over the embassy's denial that its citizen took part in the alleged plot against Interior Minister Fahad Al-Yousef. Kuwait is answering through its courts and a diplomatic protest, citing international law and the UN Charter.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.