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Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

2 min read
09:24UTC

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since May, and traders tied the jump straight to the tanker strikes in the Bab al-Mandab.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent cleared $100 because the southern reroute closed, not because the strikes on Iran grew heavier.

Brent Crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since 26 May, rising about 6.7% to roughly $100.37 by 1401 GMT, with traders tying the move directly to the previous day's tanker strikes 1. The benchmark had closed at $92.09 only a day earlier , the top of a slow four-session climb.

Brent is the international price for seaborne crude, the benchmark behind roughly two-thirds of the world's traded oil, and it carries structural exposure to shipping chokepoints that inland grades do not. For a fortnight it had shrugged off vertical escalation, more nights and a rising toll, because the barrels kept moving through the dark fleet and the Omani-shore reroute south of Hormuz, which kept cargoes reaching buyers even as the northern strait was contested.

A strike in the Bab al-Mandab removes that release valve, so the market is now pricing two contested chokepoints at once rather than one. One caution belongs on the print. Oil has spiked and faded before in this war, clearing $87 on the July blockade before sliding as cargoes found a way round. The second tanker, the Layla, remains an unconfirmed Houthi claim, and a single denied strike could take the premium out as quickly as it went in.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main international price used to set oil costs around the world. On 23 July it went above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, jumping sharply in a single day. Traders say the jump is a direct reaction to the tanker strikes: when ships carrying oil through dangerous waters become targets themselves, the oil gets more expensive because it costs more to ship and insure. This matters at the petrol pump and in home energy bills. Oil prices this high, if they hold, tend to filter through to what people pay to fill a car or heat a home within weeks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Brent's structural exposure to chokepoint risk is built into the benchmark itself: it prices seaborne North Sea and Gulf cargoes, unlike West Texas Intermediate, which moves overwhelmingly by pipeline and reacts far less to Gulf shipping risk.

The move above $100 also compounds a climb that was already under way before the Encelia strike, so the jump builds on an existing tightening rather than starting from a calm baseline.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Sustained Brent prices above $100 typically reach UK and European pump prices within two to four weeks, given normal refining and distribution lags.

  • Risk

    If insurers keep pricing Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz as active war zones, the premium embedded in Brent may not unwind quickly even if strikes pause, unlike the rapid snapback seen after Abqaiq in 2019.

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Reuters· 23 Jul 2026
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Different Perspectives
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Underwriters can price Houthi strikes because the group announces its targets, but an unclaimed drone at Damietta and a mandatory Iranian insurance scheme both deny them a pattern to price against. War-risk premiums are increasingly being set by the absence of a claimant, not the scale of the damage.
Jordan
Jordan
Azraq absorbed its fourth Iranian strike in seven weeks, again drawing no direct Jordanian retaliation, only an American one. Amman's exposure, hosting US basing without the Patriot density of Gulf allies, has not changed even as the war around it widens.
Houthi movement
Houthi movement
The Houthis' 20 July blockade of Saudi-linked shipping is the injury Riyadh's new 43-nation coalition directly answers, yet the group itself was never asked to join and remains outside every proposal on the table. Sanaa-aligned commentators call the coalition a paper reassurance for insurers rather than a deployable force.
Egypt's Cabinet
Egypt's Cabinet
Egypt confirmed the Damietta blaze was an attack, not an accident, on soil the war had never touched before. Cairo now faces an unclaimed threat to a facility supplying roughly 7% of its domestic gas, with no author to hold accountable and no pattern yet to defend against.
Oman
Oman
Muscat is running the only channel Iran will use, a voluntary Hormuz fee modelled on Malacca, but stayed out of Saudi Arabia's new naval coalition entirely. Oman's mediating leverage depends on treating Hormuz as shared and non-exclusive, the opposite of what Tehran is now demanding of it.
Iraq's Prime Minister
Iraq's Prime Minister
Al-Zaidi cancelled his first official Riyadh visit and convened the Coordination Framework, the coalition that keeps him in power and whose factions sit inside the PMF that Saudi jets just struck. He is caught between a five-year Saudi investment relationship and armed groups inside his own state he does not fully control.