Vortexa, the tanker-tracking analytics firm, put Iran's May crude and condensate exports at 209kbd (thousand barrels per day), down 84% from April's 1.34mbd 1. Some 67 million barrels of Iranian crude now sit stranded in the Gulf, unable to clear the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with onshore reserve capacity roughly two months from exhaustion at the current rate.
The number matters less as a monthly print than as a structural break in supply. An export figure this low, sustained, removes Iran from the medium sour pool that Mediterranean and Asian refiners draw on, rather than dipping it for a quarter. Once the 67mb of floating storage clears or strands permanently, there is no quick restart: a blockaded producer cannot ramp the way an OPEC member with spare capacity can.
Iran's 209kbd floor extends the supply destruction that narrowed the East-West crude arbitrage last week as Chinese seaborne demand also fell to a decade low . With Iranian Light flipping to a discount against Brent, the compression reads as a China-side demand hole rather than fresh Iranian length. Both forces point the same way: less physical crude reaching the water, against a quota schedule that assumes barrels are waiting to be switched on.
