US crude inventories drew 7.9mb to 445.0mb in the 15 May reporting week, the largest single-week draw of the window, with refinery utilisation running at 91.6%1. RBOB ran $3.794/gal and NYH heating oil $3.943/gal, both bid into the summer, which keeps US product margins firm just as Brent-WTI compresses. With that spread near $1-2, the TC2 transatlantic gasoline arb stays shut, so US barrels that would normally chase Europe stay home and pressure EBOB only indirectly.
The East is moving the other way. Fujairah total stocks rebuilt +96kbd to 6.593mb in the week to 18 May, the first build in ten weeks off the record-low 6.5mb the hub hit in early May, though the level stays historically tight2. The two readings sketch an asymmetric balance: a Western draw against an early Eastern refill, with The Gulf still short of comfortable.
Feeding that rebuild is Russian crude that keeps flowing. The KSE Institute put Russian oil export revenue at $19.0bn in March on Urals FOB around $76/bbl3, the supply GL 134C now keeps legally in transit. The draw tightens the basin that lost its Gulf imports while the East absorbs the barrels sanctions were meant to strand.
