The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies published Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148, "Global Gas: Battling the Next Crisis", in late April 2026. The introduction by Bill Farren-Price ranks the Iran shock as the largest episode of energy market disruption since the early 1970s1. Across multiple papers in the issue, the institutional view converges on a multi-year tightness rather than a transitional one.
Vitaly Yermakov's paper on Russia-to-China LNG diversion intersects directly with the 25 April short-term Russian LNG ban: with Europe choking off the spot route, Russian volumes redirect south, and China is named explicitly as the global "balancing market". If Beijing moderates imports, European supply tightens further. Anouk Honoré finds prospects for European industrial gas demand recovery "very limited" after the 2022 shock, an outlook now compounded by Iran. Samia Adel and Carole Le Henaff treat storage resilience as the security baseline. Klaus-Dieter Borchardt argues the coming LNG wave and lower gas prices could undermine EU energy transition commitments over the longer term.
The practical effect of the Issue 148 frame: the IEA Q2 GMR (Gas Market Report) shift to a multi-year LNG capacity delay sits inside the institutional consensus rather than ahead of it. OIES Issue 32's own Q1 finding of a 20% global LNG supply fall provides the baseline from which Issue 148 now projects forward. Both reads make the storage-pace floor more binding, not less, and they raise the cost of any unplanned outage between now and mid-November.
