Vitaly Yermakov
OIES Senior Research Fellow; argues Russia-to-China LNG diversion makes Beijing the global balancing market.
Last refreshed: 4 May 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Does China's LNG demand, not Hormuz, hold the key to European gas prices?
Timeline for Vitaly Yermakov
Analysed Russia-to-China LNG diversion and named China as the global balancing market
European Energy Markets: OIES frames Iran shock as multi-year- Who is Vitaly Yermakov and what does he say about Russian LNG?
- Vitaly Yermakov is a Senior Research Fellow at OIES specialising in Russian energy. His April 2026 paper argues that Europe's exclusion of Russian gas has redirected Russian LNG volumes toward China, making Beijing the global balancing market for European supply tightness.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148
- Why does one Oxford researcher think China matters more than Hormuz for European gas prices?
- OIES Fellow Vitaly Yermakov argues that if China moderates its LNG demand in Q3 2026, Atlantic cargoes diverted east will be released back toward Europe, compressing TTF. This routing dynamic means Beijing's import pace, not just Hormuz, sets the pace of European supply relief.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148
- Where does Russia send its LNG now that Europe is buying less?
- Russia has redirected LNG volumes toward China and Asia, a flow Vitaly Yermakov at OIES describes as making China the global 'balancing market'. At EUR 46/MWh TTF, Asian JKM prices at USD 16.55/MMBtu remain more attractive than European parity, sustaining eastward routing.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148
Background
Vitaly Yermakov is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies specialising in Russian energy markets, LNG trade flows, and the geopolitics of gas supply. His paper in Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148, published April 2026, analysed Russia-to-China LNG diversion following Europe's progressive exclusion of Russian gas, naming China as the global 'balancing market' for LNG volumes displaced by Western sanctions.
Yermakov's core argument in Issue 148 intersects directly with the April 2026 EU short-term Russian LNG spot ban. With Europe choking off the spot route, Russian volumes redirect south toward Chinese buyers. If Beijing moderates its LNG imports, Atlantic cargoes that would have gone east will be released toward Europe, compressing TTF and widening the injection pace margin. The crisis severity, in Yermakov's frame, depends on Beijing's demand trajectory, not on Hormuz disruption alone.
His research provides the principal counter-scenario to the multi-year tightness framing of his OIES colleague Bill Farren-Price: a faster China demand moderation could compress the crisis window considerably faster than the headline institutional consensus implies. That tension between the Farren-Price structural view and Yermakov's routing-driven scenario is the key analytical divide in Issue 148.
