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Iran Conflict 2026
31MAY

Refineries hit 16-year low; drones flip

4 min read
09:14UTC

Russian refinery throughput fell to 4.69 mbpd, the lowest since December 2009; on 2-3 May Ukraine launched 334 drones into Russia against Russia's 268, the first verified overnight reversal of the daily exchange ratio.

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Key takeaway

Ukraine's refinery campaign reached every leg of Russia's export chain in one fortnight and outflew Russia for the first time.

Russian average refinery throughput fell to 4.69 million barrels per day (mbpd) in late April, the lowest reading since December 2009. Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea coast was struck for the fourth time in two weeks on 1 May, with fires reigniting after the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry declared them out. Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukrainian strikes on two Russian shadow tankers off Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast. Ukraine's drone forces commander told Meduza on 1 May that 'no part of Russia is safe from strikes'.

On the night of 2-3 May, Ukraine launched 334 drones into Russia against Russia's 268 drones at Ukraine, the first verified overnight reversal of the daily exchange ratio. The reversal sits beside three other shifts in the same week: the move past terminals to refineries to the offloading fleet itself; the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Transneft-Privolga strike ; and the underlying tempo build that produced the 22 April mass-launch outlier . Ukraine has now closed every leg of the Russian export chain inside one fortnight.

Pre-war Russian refining norms ran near 5.6 mbpd; the 4.69 mbpd reading implies roughly 0.9 mbpd of lost domestic processing. Russia is fighting an offensive without the petrol and diesel volume its own forces and economy require, and with the gasoline export ban active since the Kirishi shutdown earlier in April, Moscow cannot monetise the refined-product premium when crude is rerouted to export.

CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis) and RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) put the 2025 strike campaign at 0.46% of Russian annual oil revenue . Two changes have moved that calculus: target diversification across the export chain and the breach of the daily exchange ratio. Zelenskyy told RBC-Ukraine Russia has lost at least $7 billion since January 2026 from long-range strikes, more than fifteen times the 2025 baseline.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine's drones and missiles have been striking Russian oil refineries and export facilities for months. This week two developments crossed important thresholds. Russian refineries are now processing oil at their lowest rate since December 2009, meaning Russia is producing less refined fuel than at any point in 16 years. Separately, on the night of 2-3 May, Ukraine launched 334 drones toward Russia overnight; Russia sent 268 toward Ukraine. That was the first time Ukraine sent more drones in a single night than Russia. The Tuapse refinery in southern Russia was struck four times in two weeks, with fires reigniting after Russian authorities said they had put them out. Ukraine also struck two Russian oil tankers off the coast of Novorossiysk, extending the campaign from refineries to the ships that carry Russia's oil to buyers.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The drone volume reversal has two structural causes that are separate from simple production numbers. First, Ukraine shifted manufacturing from single-mission Shahed-clone airframes to a mixed fleet of purpose-built low-observable loitering munitions with modular warheads starting in Q4 2025.

That mix allows smaller warheads at higher sortie rate, which is why Tuapse fires reignite: the warhead is sized for fuel-system ignition, not structural destruction, enabling sustained reignition cycles rather than terminal damage.

Second, Ukraine's drone corridor management has adapted to Russian EW (electronic warfare) patterns. Russian R-330Zh Zhitel EW systems were redeployed to protect Moscow oblast following the parade security decision; that redeployment thinned the EW coverage on southern corridors between Ukraine and Krasnodar Krai.

Tuapse sits in that thinned zone. The four strikes in two weeks are therefore partly a product of the same parade-security decision that produced event-00 in this briefing: redirecting EW assets to Moscow created a drone-route window in Krasnodar.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The overnight drone volume reversal, if sustained over a two-week period, would force Russia to deploy more EW and air-defence assets to the interior rather than the front, reducing battlefield coverage.

    Short term · 0.68
  • Risk

    If Russia retaliates for the shadow tanker strikes with attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea infrastructure, the conflict risks drawing in Turkish and Romanian energy transit interests in the Black Sea.

    Short term · 0.55
  • Consequence

    Refinery throughput at 4.69 mbpd compresses Russia's export margin to approximately 1.5 mbpd; sustained at this level, domestic fuel subsidy costs rise and public-facing inflation pressure on the Russian government increases.

    Medium term · 0.75
Sources:Al Jazeera·19FortyFive
Mentions:Ukrainian Armed Forces →Novorossiysk →Security Service of Ukraine →Russian Emergency Situations Ministry →Meduza →RUSI →Volodymyr Zelenskyy →Russia →IISS →Tuapse →Coalition →US Army →Iraq →Moscow →Transneft →Ukraine →Center for European Policy Analysis →Russia-Ukraine war →
First Reported In

Update #15 · Hardware-free parade; crude waiver lives on

Al Jazeera· 3 May 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
SSU Alpha drones hit Samara, Tuapse, Gorky
Tuapse and Novorossiysk strikes in early May escalated the SSU Alpha anti-oil campaign that struck Samara crude tanks on 21 April
Occurred 21 Apr 2026
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Kyiv moves the oil war to the Black Sea
The offloading-fleet strikes off Novorossiysk extended the campaign begun with the CPC Novorossiysk terminal strike on 6 April
Occurred 6 Apr 2026
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Russia launched 9,096 drones in a single day
The 2-3 May overnight exchange reversal (334 vs 268) followed the 22 April 9,096-drone day that showed the scale gap was closing; part of the same deep-strike campaign as refinery and tanker strikes
Occurred 22 Apr 2026
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This Event
Refineries hit 16-year low; drones flip
Three indicators of the deep-strike campaign moved together: refinery throughput, the offloading fleet, and the exchange ratio Ukraine had never previously won.
Led to
Syzran Hit, Quarter of Refining Halted
The Syzran and central-Russia refinery campaign continues and extends the refinery strike halt pattern to 25% of national capacity
Occurred 20 May 2026
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Different Perspectives
Human rights monitors (Hengaw, Amnesty International, Iran HRM)
Human rights monitors (Hengaw, Amnesty International, Iran HRM)
Monitors documented a second death sentence for Zahra Tabari, 68, reported cemetery record deletions at Behesht-e Zahra, and a poll showing 81.5% of medical residents want to emigrate, against a background of 200+ confirmed executions since February. Iran's security courts operate at uninterrupted wartime tempo regardless of the diplomatic track.
Pakistan (mediator)
Pakistan (mediator)
Islamabad carried Trump's revised MOU demanding HEU destruction to Iranian negotiators, formally inheriting the role of sole active mediator after Oman's forced withdrawal. Pakistan lacks Oman's banking infrastructure for frozen-asset routing and carries its own regional stakes, making it a less structurally neutral broker.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles and drones for a second time in days on 1 June, with air-raid sirens sounding nationwide, after invoking Article 51 self-defence on 28 May following the Ali Al Salem ballistic-missile strike. The repeated interceptions test whether Kuwait's domestic politics can sustain hosting US forces as a de facto co-belligerent.
China (PRC)
China (PRC)
Beijing sent scholars to Shangri-La rather than its defence minister and addressed Taiwan without mentioning Iran, maintaining bilateral energy corridor protection with Tehran while refusing diplomatic exposure at multilateral forums. Trump barred China as an HEU custodian on 27 May, removing Beijing from the deal architecture while China continues supplying DPI hardware that caps Iran's internet.
Lloyd's of London / war-risk underwriters
Lloyd's of London / war-risk underwriters
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk designation at $10-14 million per voyage while Brent recovered to $93.91, maintaining the structural divergence from futures pricing that has persisted since late May. Underwriters require a UN Security Council resolution or government certification letter, not diplomatic optimism.
Gulf Cooperation Council states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar)
Gulf Cooperation Council states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar)
Five Gulf states wrote to the IMO on 21 May rejecting Iran's PGSA transit authority over international waters; Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not confirmed participation in the European Hormuz mission. The GCC is navigating between US security guarantees and exposure to Iranian fire, with no Gulf state formally co-belligerent except Kuwait.