Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
European Oil Markets
26MAY

US draws 7.9mb, Fujairah rebuilds 96kbd

3 min read
08:52UTC

EIA logged a 7.9mb US crude draw to 445.0mb in the week to 15 May, the window's largest, while Fujairah stocks rebuilt 96kbd to 6.593mb, a first build in ten weeks off a record low.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

A 7.9mb US draw tightens the West as Fujairah starts to refill on Russian barrels GL 134C keeps moving.

US crude inventories drew 7.9mb to 445.0mb in the 15 May reporting week, the largest single-week draw of the window, with refinery utilisation running at 91.6% 1. RBOB ran $3.794/gal and NYH heating oil $3.943/gal, both bid into the summer, which keeps US product margins firm just as Brent-WTI compresses. With that spread near $1-2, the TC2 transatlantic gasoline arb stays shut, so US barrels that would normally chase Europe stay home and pressure EBOB only indirectly.

The East is moving the other way. Fujairah total stocks rebuilt +96kbd to 6.593mb in the week to 18 May, the first build in ten weeks off the record-low 6.5mb the hub hit in early May , though the level stays historically tight 2. The two readings sketch an asymmetric balance: a Western draw against an early Eastern refill, with the Gulf still short of comfortable.

Feeding that rebuild is Russian crude that keeps flowing. The KSE Institute put Russian oil export revenue at $19.0bn in March on Urals FOB around $76/bbl 3, the supply GL 134C now keeps legally in transit. The draw tightens the basin that lost its Gulf imports while the East absorbs the barrels sanctions were meant to strand.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Two pieces of inventory data tell the current oil market's story. In the US, stockpiles of crude oil fell by 7.9 million barrels in the week to 15 May ; a large single-week drop ; as American refineries ran at over 90% capacity. Near the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE port of Fujairah (a major oil storage hub) saw its stocks tick up slightly for the first time in ten weeks after hitting a record low. The two draws together left global supply 246 million barrels below the levels the IEA considers normal. Separately, Russia collected about $19 billion from oil exports in March, nearly twice the February figure, because the Hormuz crisis pushed global prices high enough to override the Western price cap on Russian crude.

First Reported In

Update #2 · GL 134C reverses the cliff, Brent -$14

EIA· 26 May 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
US draws 7.9mb, Fujairah rebuilds 96kbd
The draw tightens the West just as the East starts to refill, with GL 134C keeping the Russian barrels that feed the rebuild legally in motion.
Different Perspectives
Indian / Asian refinery buyers
Indian / Asian refinery buyers
The Adani $275m OFAC settlement for 32 Iran-LPG violations, posted 18 May, recalibrated the compliance-cost calculus for every Indian buyer holding Russian cargoes loaded under the lapsed GL 134B; GL 134C restores cover but the Cuba carve-out and the Cuba-tainted cargo class force per-voyage due diligence on the full logistics chain.
Shell / TotalEnergies NWE refining
Shell / TotalEnergies NWE refining
With BP Rotterdam's 400kbd dark on both crude units and the ICE Gasoil crack near $54/bbl as Brent fell $14, NWE refiners running full crude capture a crack-to-crude ratio of roughly 56%, well above the 30-35% historical norm; every barrel cracked into gasoil on non-Hormuz feedstock earns extraordinary margins.
VLCC owner / Baltic Exchange freight desk
VLCC owner / Baltic Exchange freight desk
The BDTI at 2,249 on 20 May is still pricing a war the market no longer fully believes; GL 134C removes the compliance bid from Baltic Aframax TD7 and TD19 ahead of any VLCC print, because owners reprice forced-rerouting premiums faster than they reprice an all-time-high composite index.
Goldman Sachs / Energy Aspects sell-side macro
Goldman Sachs / Energy Aspects sell-side macro
The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowing from above $6/bbl confirms the light-sweet war premium is deflating, not dead; the 30-60 day MOU window means the $14 Brent decline has priced a scenario where Hormuz is functionally open by July, leaving the flat price exposed to a re-spike if mine clearance stalls.
EU Council sanctions directorate
EU Council sanctions directorate
The 20th package's maritime-services ban deferral, contingent on G7 coordination at Kananaskis, reflects Hungary, Slovakia and Austria wielding the unanimity veto to block a measure that would raise NWE seaborne costs for states whose Russian crude arrives by pipeline and faces no freight exposure.
Rosneft / Russian export ministry
Rosneft / Russian export ministry
Russian export revenue at $19.0bn in March on Urals FOB ~$76/bbl, $28 above the G7 $47.60 cap, confirms the cap has no effective bite at current flat price; the shadow fleet's Russian-flag share rising to 21% shows Moscow absorbed Western vessel-services constraints by re-flagging out of P&I reach.