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European Energy Markets
12MAY

Mubaraz: first loaded LNG out of Hormuz

4 min read
10:23UTC

The Mubaraz, an LNG carrier loaded at ADNOC's Das Island in early March, reappeared west of India on 27 April after going dark around 31 March, completing the first confirmed loaded LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, with China the destination.

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EconomicAssessed
Key takeaway

Hormuz is open for one cargo; the price spread keeps Atlantic cargoes pointed at Asia, not Europe.

The Mubaraz, an LNG carrier loaded at ADNOC's Das Island facility in early March, reappeared west of India on Monday 27 April after going dark around 31 March, completing the first confirmed loaded LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began 1. The cargo is destined for a terminal in China with estimated arrival 15 May. Before the conflict, roughly three loaded LNG carriers transited Hormuz daily; the Mubaraz crossing puts that count at one in roughly two months.

Das Island is the ADNOC-operated LNG facility off the UAE coast, the principal Gulf LNG export point routing through Hormuz. Hormuz had recorded 19 crossings on 25 April with no LNG transits ; the Mubaraz crossing is the first loaded LNG passage of the post-war window. The IEA's Q2 Gas Market Report had already shifted the analytical baseline from a mid-year Hormuz LNG resumption to a multi-year delay; the Mubaraz transit is a single data point against that revised baseline rather than a framework change.

JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, traded at USD 16.55/MMBtu front-month on 28 April against TTF equivalent near USD 14.80, a USD 1.75 spread that European buyers feel directly. That gap is enough to pull flexible Atlantic LNG cargoes east, not west. For European buyers running storage injection under the Bruegel-flagged refill pace, the practical implication is that partial Hormuz reopening does not automatically deliver cargoes to European terminals. The arbitrage routes them to Chinese, Japanese and Korean buyers first.

Iran-conflict-2026 owns the military and political framing of the Hormuz reopening; this topic owns the supply-routing implication. Whether the next Hormuz transit is a single LNG carrier or a sustained pattern matters less for European buyers than whether the JKM-TTF spread compresses below the level that pulls cargoes east. Through 2025 the spread had narrowed to USD 0.50-1.00; the current USD 1.75 keeps the eastern pull intact. Storage injection planners running scenarios past July need to assume Atlantic cargoes route east while the spread holds, regardless of how often Hormuz cracks open in the months ahead.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that almost all LNG tankers from the Middle East must pass through. Since the conflict began, it has been effectively closed to LNG traffic. On 27 April, the first LNG tanker in months was tracked passing through; the Mubaraz, heading to China. This sounds like good news for Europe, which is struggling to find gas for next winter. But there is a catch: gas prices in Asia are currently higher than in Europe, so the ship went east, not west. Until European gas prices rise enough to outbid Asian buyers, Middle East LNG reopening through Hormuz does not automatically mean more gas for Europe.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Das Island sits inside the Persian Gulf, making Hormuz the only viable exit route for ADNOC's LNG cargoes. ADNOC had approximately 14 LNG cargoes loaded or queued at Das Island when the conflict began, per IEA Oil Market Report (April) estimates.

The Mubaraz going dark around 31 March and reappearing on 27 April represents roughly 27 days of AIS silence; consistent with a vessel holding at anchor inside the Gulf, awaiting an Iranian clearance signal or military coordination window, before transiting when a passage was available.

The JKM premium above TTF has persisted since Hormuz closed, because reduced Middle East supply into Asian markets tightened JKM while European storage injectors, constrained by Hammerfest offline and the Russian LNG ban, are absorbing Atlantic cargoes at current TTF levels without needing to bid above the Asian netback.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Mubaraz transit to China confirms that Hormuz partial reopening does not automatically route cargoes to Europe; the JKM-TTF spread is the effective gate, currently below the threshold at which European buyers can outbid Asian netbacks.

    Immediate · 0.82
  • Risk

    If Hormuz reopens further but the JKM-TTF spread persists above USD 1.20/MMBtu, European storage refill faces a structural supply gap that Atlantic cargoes cannot fill at market prices; requiring either a TTF price rise or a policy intervention to redirect volumes westward.

    Medium term · 0.7
  • Opportunity

    Das Island's ability to transit cargoes through Hormuz, if it becomes a regular pattern, restores ADNOC as a Middle East LNG supply option for European term-contract buyers negotiating 2027-28 agreements.

    Long term · 0.5
Sources:Bloomberg
Mentions:ADNOC →Strait of Hormuz →China →India →Iran →Abu Dhabi →Gulf of Oman →Fujairah →Libya →Bruegel →Oman →Kpler →TTF →Das Island →Mubaraz →United Arab Emirates (UAE) →JKM →
First Reported In

Update #6 · REMIT II live; storage instrument absent

Bloomberg· 29 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
EU Russian LNG ban begins; TTF barely flinches
Russian LNG short-term contract ban reducing Atlantic spot supply availability makes the JKM-TTF spread and cargo routing decisions more consequential for European supply.
Occurred 25 Apr 2026
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This Event
Mubaraz: first loaded LNG out of Hormuz
Hormuz is partially open for LNG, but the JKM-TTF spread routes flexible Atlantic cargoes east first, so European buyers see the headline transit without the cargo.
Led to
Project Freedom moves TTF only 1.48%
Mubaraz routing to Asia (ID:2890) established the precedent that Hormuz transits post-Project Freedom would not deliver European supply, dampening TTF response.
Occurred 4 May 2026
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Different Perspectives
Hungarian and Slovak gas buyers and regulators
Hungarian and Slovak gas buyers and regulators
Hungary cleared EUR 123.23/MWh on 12 May, EUR 54 above Spain's same-day clearing and the largest single-market premium of the briefing series, as ACER named it among seven NRAs in TurkStream derogation opinions with the 5 August EC ruling pending. A denial of derogation removes the only available pipeline substitute for Russian LNG banned since 25 April.
Norwegian upstream producers (Equinor, ORLEN Upstream Norway)
Norwegian upstream producers (Equinor, ORLEN Upstream Norway)
Equinor started the Eirin field on 5 May (27.6 mmboe via Gassled) and signed NOK 17bn of Q1 drilling contracts on USD 9.77bn adjusted operating income. These are long-horizon defences against the Sodir-confirmed Norwegian production decline, not molecules deliverable inside the 2026 injection window.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
The Commission cut the storage target from 90% to 80% in April without enforcement teeth; a second formal cut requires Council unanimity not currently available, leaving silent acceptance of a sub-80% landing as the operative policy posture. The AccelerateEU package offered no storage injection mechanism, confirming consumer-relief tools as the preferred instrument.
Major LNG buyers (Japanese and Korean utilities)
Major LNG buyers (Japanese and Korean utilities)
With JKM-TTF at USD 2.30/MMBtu, Asian buyers retain the routing premium on flexible Atlantic cargoes by a margin of USD 0.80 to 1.10/MMBtu above the cargo-diversion breakeven. The spring demand softening that compressed the spread from USD 3 or more has not reversed the routing direction, and Asian buyers face no material competitive threat from European procurement at prevailing TTF.
Industrial gas consumers (BASF, Yara, Cefic members)
Industrial gas consumers (BASF, Yara, Cefic members)
BASF flagged Verbund site production freezes and Yara curtailed 25% of European output at EUR 47 TTF, confirming that the industrial demand destruction threshold has migrated EUR 23 below the 2022 ceiling. Without a gas price subsidy instrument or trade protection on fertiliser imports, further curtailment is the rational response to any TTF move above EUR 50.
National energy regulators (BNetzA, CRE, ACER)
National energy regulators (BNetzA, CRE, ACER)
ACER's 6 May TurkStream derogation opinions put seven NRAs on notice that the 5 August EC ruling window is live; the concurrent Hungary EUR 123/MWh single-market premium compounds the political pressure on the Commission to either grant or formally deny the derogations before the code application date.