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Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia

3 min read
10:53UTC

Vessel tracking shows Europe losing the cargo-by-cargo competition with Asian buyers, as the JKM-TTF spread collapses to near zero.

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Key takeaway

The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu erases Europe's cost advantage for attracting flexible LNG cargoes.

Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.

Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.

Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe normally imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and West Africa, shipped across the Atlantic Ocean. Eight of those tanker ships have recently been redirected to Asia instead. This is happening because Asian countries are currently paying similar prices to Europe for gas. When there is no significant price advantage for coming to Europe, shipping companies and traders route cargoes to wherever their contracts or logistics make most sense, which right now is Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cargo diversions reflect a structural feature of global LNG contracts: portfolio LNG suppliers (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) who purchase US LNG under long-term HH-indexed contracts and resell it on the spot market optimise delivery destinations quarterly, not in real time. Once a diversion decision is made and a vessel is en route via Cape of Good Hope, that cargo is effectively committed for 6-8 weeks regardless of subsequent TTF movements.

The five US-origin cargoes in the diversions are almost certainly portfolio volumes from Shell's Sabine Pass offtake or TotalEnergies' Sabine Pass Train 5 contracts. These companies have explicit Asian portfolio commitments that take precedence over spot European sales when Asian demand is elevated.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The near-zero JKM-TTF spread removes Europe's primary market mechanism for attracting flexible spot LNG cargoes, making any further supply disruption directly additive to the storage deficit.

  • Opportunity

    A Hormuz normalisation that resumes Middle East LNG flows could widen the JKM-TTF spread in Europe's favour within weeks, attracting Atlantic cargoes back and accelerating injection season recovery.

Sources:Kpler·OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →European Union →Japan →South Korea →Bloomberg →Cape of Good Hope →Prima →Qatar →Nigeria →United States →Ras Laffan Industrial City →JKM →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

Kpler· 13 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia
The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu eliminates Europe's traditional price premium for attracting flexible cargoes, turning every spot cargo into a bidding contest.
Led to
Russian LNG ban lands 25 April, no replacement named
Atlantic LNG cargo diversions to Asia (now close to a dozen) compound the supply gap created by the Russian LNG ban with no European replacement supply named.
Occurred 15 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.