20JUL

Yemeni troops push on Houthi-held Dhubab

2 min read

11:19UTC

Yemen's government forces attacked Dhubab, above Bab al-Mandeb, on 5 October with heavy Saudi-led air cover, a day after opening a wider offensive.

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Key takeaway

Saudi-backed Yemeni forces are fighting to retake the Houthi-held coast above Bab al-Mandeb.

Yemen's government forces opened an offensive on Houthi-held territory on 4 October, Reuters reported⁠¹. The next day they attacked Dhubab district with heavy air support from the Saudi-led coalition. Dhubab overlooks Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow strait at the Red Sea's southern mouth.

The Giants Brigades, a pro-government Yemeni force, said their first units reached Dhubab that day. Houthi-aligned media denied any advance, and no independent account settles where the front line sits. The Houthis had taken that coast, including Mayun island in the strait, in September.

Saudi aircraft have bombed Yemen since the coalition intervened against the Houthis in 2015. This month's ground push aims to retake the coast the Houthis seized in September. The offensive opened two days before Houthi missiles began hitting Saudi airports. On 13 October the coalition told civilians to leave before it bombed an oil site in Houthi-held Sanaa.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Yemen has two rival authorities. The Houthis run the north and the capital, Sanaa; an internationally recognised government, backed by Saudi Arabia, holds much of the south. Dhubab is a coastal district next to Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti. Most ships going between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal pass through it. The Giants Brigades are a pro-government Yemeni force, largely recruited in the south. Their advance answers the Houthis' own September offensive on the coast.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Bab al-Mandeb is the Red Sea's southern gate, and whoever holds the high ground at Dhubab can watch or fire on the shipping lane. That geography makes the district a recurring target in every phase of Yemen's war.

The September collapse of the multi-year truce removed the political cover that had kept front lines static, AFP reports. Once the Houthis seized the whole coast, Riyadh and its Yemeni allies faced a choice between accepting Houthi control of the strait and contesting it on the ground.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A coalition foothold at Dhubab would put the Houthis' control of the strait's eastern shore in doubt for the first time since September.
Risk
Each coalition gain on the coast is likely to draw further Houthi strikes on Saudi civilian infrastructure.

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United Kingdom

United Kingdom×2

Primary parallel: Operation Golden Spear, launched in January 2017 by UAE-backed forces, took Dhubab and then Mokha within weeks. The Houthis lost the Bab al-Mandeb shore but kept Hodeidah port and the capital.

Counter-parallel: The June 2018 push on Hodeidah stalled at the city's edge under international pressure over famine risk. It ended in the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement of December 2018, which froze the front rather than settling it.

The Red Sea route already carries far less traffic than before the Houthi shipping attacks began in late 2023. A ground war at Bab al-Mandeb adds a land-based threat to the maritime one, which keeps shippers routing round the Cape of Good Hope and war-risk premiums high.

Fuel sales are one of the Houthis' main domestic income streams, and the coalition's strike hit an oil site in Sanaa.

Consensus view: Three military sources and one government source told Reuters that heavy coalition air cover carried government forces into large parts of Dhubab {{SRC:2}}. The aim is to retake the shore the Houthis seized in September.

Counter-view: Houthi-aligned media deny any advance, and the movement's record since 2015 is of absorbing coastal losses while holding the highlands and Sanaa. On that reading Dhubab changes the map at the strait but not the war's centre of gravity.

Key tension: Whether the coalition can hold a coastal strip under Houthi missile fire, or whether the offensive mainly invites more strikes on Saudi cities.

Sources:The Times of Israel·The Times of Israel·The Times of Israel

Mentions:Yemen →Houthis →Dhubab →Saudi Arabia →Bab al-Mandeb →Sanaa →Red Sea →Reuters →Suez Canal →Djibouti →Mokha →Mayun →Hodeidah →Cape of Good Hope →

First Reported In

Update #181 · Houthi missiles kill 13 at Riyadh's airport

The Times of Israel· 17 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis take all of Yemen's Red Sea coast

Government forces attacked Dhubab on the Bab al-Mandeb coast the Houthis had taken in September.

Occurred 12 Sept 2026

Read story →

This Event

Yemeni troops push on Houthi-held Dhubab

Government troops backed by Saudi air power are contesting the coast that gives the Houthis their grip on Bab al-Mandeb.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.