TTF settled EUR 59.135/MWh on Monday 20 July, a third consecutive leg higher on Hormuz supply risk, while German day-ahead cleared EUR 103.16. That combination puts CCGT marginal cost above power revenue and the clean spark spread roughly EUR 15 to EUR 20 negative. France now trades cheaper than Germany on nuclear output that runs under a thermal waiver expiring today. Berlin's capacity auctions still lack EU state-aid clearance.
Hormuz risk premium is pricing through Germany's merit order, not through any confirmed loss of gas or power supply.
TTF settled at EUR 59.135/MWh on Monday, 7.5% above its 15 July close, while the IRGC says the Strait of Hormuz is shut and CENTCOM says vessels are still transiting.
ChinaIran's Revolutionary Guard declared the strait of Hormuz closed on 20 July, claiming two tanker kills without naming a vessel, flag or owner. US Central Command (CENTCOM) denies any closure and says vessels keep transiting.
Satellite tracking shows 479 vessels anchored and 123 still broadcasting inside the strait, not a sealed passage. Gas buyers priced the uncertainty anyway: TTF settled EUR 59.135/MWh, its highest in four months.
German day-ahead cleared EUR 103.16/MWh on Monday against a CCGT marginal cost of EUR 118 to EUR 124, inverting the clean spark spread and pushing the fleet off-merit into the worst July injection pace in six years.
Germany's clean spark spread inverted to between minus EUR 15 and minus EUR 21/MWh on 20 July. Gas plants went off-merit as fuel cost of EUR 118 to EUR 124 outran EUR 103.16 of day-ahead power revenue.
A four-hour zero-priced solar block did most of the damage; only a small slice traces to Hormuz-driven gas costs. Roughly 13% of the swing is fuel, more than 87% weather and calendar.
France cleared EUR 98.95/MWh on Monday, a EUR 4.21 discount to Germany, on nuclear output that RTE called a public necessity and that a thermal-discharge waiver expires today.
IrelandFranceFrance cleared EUR 98.95/MWh on 20 July against Germany's EUR 103.16, a EUR 4.21 discount. The gap held on nuclear output that a thermal-discharge waiver for Bugey reactors 4 and 5 kept running.
France's nuclear safety regulator (ASNR) granted that waiver at the request of national grid operator (RTE), and it expires today. Whether the French discount survives that expiry remains an open question for RTE.
Bundesnetzagentur's own auction page, last revised 10 July, says the European Commission has not granted state-aid approval for Germany's 9 GW capacity programme.
Bundesnetzagentur's own StromVKG auction page was last revised 10 July. It confirms EU state-aid approval has not been granted for the two 4.5 GW capacity auctions in the 9 GW 2026 programme.
Bundesnetzagentur keeps publishing bid deadlines for both tranches regardless. Bidders would be committing to a subsidised capacity contract that Brussels has not yet cleared under EU competition law.
ACER opened its consultation on the REMIT transaction-reporting annex on 16 July, exactly on schedule, and set the close for 11 September.
ACER (the EU's energy regulators' agency) opened its consultation on the REMIT (EU energy market integrity rulebook) transaction-reporting annex on 16 July. That was the date it had scheduled. It runs to 11 September and clarifies reporting scope against Regulation (EU) 648/2012.
The annex targets market participants, national regulators, registered reporting mechanisms and organised marketplaces. It is a compliance step ahead of ACER's wider cross-border enforcement powers activating later this year.
Sideways, pending two dated hinges rather than a single trajectory. The Bugey waiver expires today; RTE's decision to renew or let it lapse determines whether France stays the cheaper leg or reverts toward Germany within a session. Separately, the 20 July AIS picture, 479 vessels anchored, 36 running dark and 123 broadcasting inside the strait, is the baseline any independent update either confirms or moves; a higher broadcasting count would unwind the EUR 7 to EUR 8/MWh fuel-leg premium quickly, since QatarEnergy's own force majeure of 9 July 2026 already prices the underlying constraint and the claim on top of it is contested rather than confirmed. Absent either trigger, the spread stays where the weather and the waiver put it.
