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European Energy Markets
18JUN

ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens

3 min read
09:57UTC

ISW assessed Russia net-lost about 91 square miles in the four weeks to 9 June as its offensive stalled, while Meduza flagged the Dobropillia sector as Moscow's new pressure point in western Donetsk.

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Key takeaway

Russia is losing ground on net yet probing Dobropillia to flank Ukraine's main fortress city.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington think tank that publishes daily battlefield assessments, found Russia net-lost about 91 square miles in the four weeks to 9 June 1. A net loss means Ukrainian gains and Russian withdrawals outweighed Russian advances over the period. The figure continues a stall ISW first flagged when it logged a roughly 100-square-mile net loss in the four weeks to 26 May .

The trend has held into June. ISW recorded no Russian advances at all on 7 June , and the front has not produced the kind of breakthrough Moscow's spring offensive promised. Ukraine tripled Russia's per-kilometre attrition cost to 179 losses per square kilometre this year , so Moscow now spends more men for less ground.

The forward-looking signal sits in where Russia probes next. Meduza, a Russian exile outlet, identified the Dobropillia sector in western Donetsk as Moscow's new pressure point, an axis that would bypass Kramatorsk from the west. Kramatorsk anchors Ukraine's fortified "fortress belt", the dense line of defended towns Russia has battered without breaking since 2024. A flanking push through Dobropillia would aim to turn that belt rather than assault it head-on, which is why a single sector flag matters more than the net-loss number suggests. Russia cannot move the line by force, so it is hunting for a way around it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based research group that tracks the Ukraine battlefield daily, found that Russia actually lost more territory than it gained over the four weeks up to 9 June, a net loss of around 91 square miles. Separately, a Russian exile news outlet called Meduza reported that Russian forces appear to be starting a new push in the Dobropillia area of western Donetsk. This is significant because Dobropillia sits to the west of Russia's main advance routes and could, if successful, allow Russian forces to approach the key Ukrainian fortress-city of Kramatorsk from an unexpected direction. No Russian breakthrough has occurred there yet, and ISW classifies the activity as a probe rather than a main effort.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    If the Dobropillia probe develops into a sustained operational push, Ukraine must reinforce a third Donetsk axis simultaneously with Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, which strains an already-tight manpower and artillery allocation.

  • Meaning

    ISW and DeepState's divergence on the four-week territorial balance, one showing a net Russian loss and the other a small Russian gain, reflects different methodologies for counting contested settlements and should be read as a signal that the front is in near-stasis rather than either side holding a clear edge.

Sources:PBS News / AP·PBS News / AP·PBS News / AP
Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Meduza →Russia →Kramatorsk →Pokrovsk →Moscow →DeepState →Kursk →Russian forces →Donetsk →Washington →Ukraine →Dobropillia →
First Reported In

Update #20 · Oil vise shuts as Russia torches the Lavra

PBS News / AP· 16 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Russia loses 100 sq miles in four weeks
The 91 sq mi net loss to 9 June extends the stall pattern ISW had already recorded showing Russia net-lost 100 sq mi in the four weeks to 26 May.
Occurred 26 May 2026
Read story →
This Event
ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens
Russia is going backwards on net territory yet probing a fresh axis that would bypass Ukraine's main Donetsk fortress city from the west.
Led to
Russia loses men 17 times Ukraine's rate
ISW's 9 June assessment of Russia net-losing 91 sq mi is the baseline against which the near-static 23 June front assessment is measured.
Occurred 23 Jun 2026
Read story →
Russia eyes a quiet October call-up
Continued territorial losses recorded by ISW add pressure toward a mobilisation decision.
Occurred 24 Jun 2026
Read story →
ISW finds no trace of Gerasimov's gains
Russia was already net-losing territory before June, consistent with the static front Gerasimov's disputed claims contradict.
Occurred 18 Jul 2026
Read story →
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