26MAY

Reuters cuts TurkStream YoY drop to 1.7%

3 min read

12:01UTC

Reuters calculations on ENTSOG data put TurkStream average April flow at 41 mcm/day, only 1.7% below April 2025. The week-old 25% drop framing collapses on inspection.

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Key takeaway

TurkStream April at 41 mcm/day is only 1.7% below April 2025; the March 2026 surge was the anomaly.

Reuters calculations on ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) data, relayed via Baird Maritime on Monday 4 May, put TurkStream average April flow at 41 mcm/day (million cubic metres per day) ¹. The figure broadly corroborates the 40.3 mcm/day EADaily had reported on 27 April , but the framing collapses on inspection. The drop is -25.5% MoM against March 2026 and only -1.7% YoY against April 2025, 1.23 bcm versus 1.25 bcm.

March was the anomaly, not April. The March 2026 surge was front-loading ahead of the Hormuz price spike , the same pattern Bruegel identified in EU LNG terminal data for the same month . Reuters attributes the April reversion to demand and pricing effects rather than pipeline disruption. Gazprom has not published its own monthly statistics since January 2023, which is why a single-source EADaily figure was able to dominate the narrative for a week before a wire-service cross-check landed.

Two positioning points follow. TurkStream is not a new disruption stacked onto the supply book; at 1.23 bcm against 1.25 bcm a year earlier, the YoY shortfall sits well inside seasonal noise. When the only number available comes from one outlet without a wire-service cross-check, the structural reading is doing more work than the data supports, as the EADaily 25% framing showed across the prior week. Lowdown flagged that print as single-source on 27 April ; the corrective Reuters/ENTSOG frame has now landed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

TurkStream is a gas pipeline that runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey, then branches north into southeastern Europe, supplying Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Slovakia. A news outlet reported in late April that the pipeline's gas flow had dropped by 25% compared to the previous month, which sounded alarming. But Reuters checked the same data from the EU's official pipeline-flow network and found the drop was only 1.7% compared to the same month last year. The big month-on-month fall was because March had been unusually high, not because April was unusually low.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The narrative dominance of the EADaily 25% framing for a full week before the Reuters correction reflects a structural data quality gap: Gazprom stopped publishing monthly statistics in January 2023, removing the primary cross-check source for TurkStream throughput figures. ENTSOG publishes daily flow nominations, but interpreting those nominations as monthly volumes requires a calculation step that commodity desks perform and regional news outlets typically do not.

The gap creates a window in which a tier-3 outlet with Gazprom-adjacent sources can set the narrative frame, and the corrective wire-service read takes days to propagate across the regional media ecosystem in Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia, precisely the markets most exposed to TurkStream volume shifts.

What could happen next?

Precedent
The week-long EADaily narrative dominance before the Reuters/ENTSOG correction illustrates how data gaps from Gazprom's January 2023 reporting halt create recurring mispricing windows that wire-service corrections cannot close in real time.
Risk
Q2 LNG contingency tenders filed by Bulgarian and Serbian buyers in response to the EADaily framing may not be cancelled even after the corrective read, adding speculative LNG demand to an already tight Atlantic cargo market.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In February 2022, immediately after the invasion, Nord Stream 1 flow data was misread by several regional outlets as a near-total cut.

ENTSOG published a correction within 48 hours showing actual throughput at 67% of contracted volume; the error drove a EUR 3-4/MWh TTF premium for roughly three sessions before the corrective wire-service framing dominated. The TurkStream/EADaily pattern is structurally identical: a single-source tier-3 outlet, an eye-catching percentage, then a Reuters/ENTSOG cross-check.

Counter-parallel: The March 2019 TurkStream pre-launch period offers a different data quality note. Before the pipeline opened, Interfax and EADaily were often the only outlets with field-level flow estimates, and their numbers proved broadly accurate because Gazprom was publishing monthly aggregates. Gazprom has not published monthly statistics since January 2023, which means the information vacuum EADaily now exploits is a structural condition, not a temporary one.

Consensus view: ENTSOG's Katja Yafimava at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has argued that TurkStream's durable operational floor sits between 38 and 44 mcm/day, driven by take-or-pay contract structures with Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary that do not flex on demand signals. The April 41 mcm/day print is squarely inside that band, consistent with normal seasonal behaviour rather than a structural disruption.

Counter-view: Kpler's Tom Marzec-Manser notes that the month-on-month optics still matter for bilateral import-substitution planning. Bulgaria and Serbia both filed Q2 LNG contingency tenders in March, partly in response to the EADaily 25% framing. If those tenders fill, they could displace TurkStream volume contractually even as physical flow recovers, creating an administrative disruption that the flow data does not yet show.

Key tension: Whether downstream buyers in Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary treat the Reuters/ENTSOG correction as sufficient grounds to cancel the Q2 contingency tenders, or hold them open as a hedge against the EADaily framing still circulating in regional media.

First Reported In

Update #7 · Storage pace 0.21 vs 0.257; floor not yet met

Baird Maritime· 4 May 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

TurkStream April flows down 25%: single source

Reuters/ENTSOG corrective frame on 4 May directly advances the single-source EADaily TurkStream figure from ID:2888.

Occurred 27 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Reuters cuts TurkStream YoY drop to 1.7%

TurkStream is not a new disruption layered onto European supply; March 2026 was the front-loading anomaly, and the corrective wire-service framing now lands.

Led to

ACER names Hungary, Slovakia at TurkStream

TurkStream April flows at 41 mcm/day (ID:3030) underpin the physical-supply risk dimension to which the ACER derogation adds regulatory exposure

Occurred 5 May 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Cefic and European industrial gas offtakers

Chemical manufacturers running at 62-68% utilisation face mandate-funded storage that secures volume at above-commercial prices without reducing gas costs. A EUR 35bn refill bill, if confirmed, flows back through regulated network tariffs, adding directly to industrial energy costs already named by BASF and INEOS as structural.

OIES and energy research institutions

Bruegel and OIES have not published a revised refill cost model at EUR 47-51 TTF with sub-0.4 pp/day pace. The EUR 35bn mid-range is drifting into use as the operative sub-80% November consensus, and the 11 June ACER workshop is the next venue where EU-level storage instrument advocacy can surface.

Equinor upstream gas

The Troll A compressor fault removed 34.6 mcm/day, stacked on Hammerfest, yet TTF fell 8.1% on Iran news the same day. Norwegian supply disruptions carry no price premium while Hormuz dominates; Equinor's 31 May Troll restart is a first estimate and the 2025 Hammerfest compressor fault of the same class slipped 24 days.

German Economy Ministry and Bundesnetzagentur

Berlin confirmed on 20 May it will not introduce a summer injection-incentive scheme, leaving Germany as the EU's only major unincentivised market after the storage levy lapsed on 1 January 2026. Commercial injectors apparently used the 18 May EUR 50 spike to lock winter supply cost rather than book against a structurally negative strip.

CRE and French gas operators

CRE's 100% mandatory booking order funds French injection regardless of the inverted strip, providing the EU aggregate cover that masks Germany's gap. The French position is insulated from TTF price moves but exposed to CRE's annual renewal cycle, a political risk rather than a commercial one.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam gas trading desks

TTF's 8.1% crash on a deal headline despite 50-plus mcm/day of verified Norwegian outages settled the EUR 50 question: it is a diplomatic ceiling, not a floor, and the short EUR 50-strike summer position keeps paying until Iran resolves. EBN's price-insensitive mandate buying tightens the prompt but the EUR 233m budget cap is a known position risk.