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European Energy Markets
22MAY

Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia

3 min read
10:26UTC

Vessel tracking shows Europe losing the cargo-by-cargo competition with Asian buyers, as the JKM-TTF spread collapses to near zero.

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Key takeaway

The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu erases Europe's cost advantage for attracting flexible LNG cargoes.

Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.

Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.

Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe normally imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and West Africa, shipped across the Atlantic Ocean. Eight of those tanker ships have recently been redirected to Asia instead. This is happening because Asian countries are currently paying similar prices to Europe for gas. When there is no significant price advantage for coming to Europe, shipping companies and traders route cargoes to wherever their contracts or logistics make most sense, which right now is Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cargo diversions reflect a structural feature of global LNG contracts: portfolio LNG suppliers (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) who purchase US LNG under long-term HH-indexed contracts and resell it on the spot market optimise delivery destinations quarterly, not in real time. Once a diversion decision is made and a vessel is en route via Cape of Good Hope, that cargo is effectively committed for 6-8 weeks regardless of subsequent TTF movements.

The five US-origin cargoes in the diversions are almost certainly portfolio volumes from Shell's Sabine Pass offtake or TotalEnergies' Sabine Pass Train 5 contracts. These companies have explicit Asian portfolio commitments that take precedence over spot European sales when Asian demand is elevated.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The near-zero JKM-TTF spread removes Europe's primary market mechanism for attracting flexible spot LNG cargoes, making any further supply disruption directly additive to the storage deficit.

  • Opportunity

    A Hormuz normalisation that resumes Middle East LNG flows could widen the JKM-TTF spread in Europe's favour within weeks, attracting Atlantic cargoes back and accelerating injection season recovery.

Sources:Kpler·OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →European Union →Japan →South Korea →Bloomberg →Cape of Good Hope →Prima →Qatar →Nigeria →United States →Ras Laffan Industrial City →JKM →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

Kpler· 13 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia
The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu eliminates Europe's traditional price premium for attracting flexible cargoes, turning every spot cargo into a bidding contest.
Led to
Russian LNG ban lands 25 April, no replacement named
Atlantic LNG cargo diversions to Asia (now close to a dozen) compound the supply gap created by the Russian LNG ban with no European replacement supply named.
Occurred 15 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
OIES energy analysts
OIES energy analysts
Bruegel's EUR 26-44bn model was calibrated for 80% delivered; the 0.17 pp/day pace projects 55-65%, so the range now prices the wrong scenario. Absence of a revision at EUR 47-50 TTF is itself a signal: the EUR 35bn mid-range is becoming the operative sub-80% consensus.
German Economy Ministry / Bundesnetzagentur
German Economy Ministry / Bundesnetzagentur
The cabinet-approved gas plant auction law sets a first 9 GW tender for 8 September 2026 but does not address the 2026 injection gap. The Bundesnetzagentur's early-warning stage is active but operationally inert at 37% fill; Berlin has no statutory instrument to compel commercial injection.
EDF / CRE (French regulatory position)
EDF / CRE (French regulatory position)
France's 100% mandatory CRE-regulated storage booking is providing the EU-aggregate injection cover that Germany's abolished levy no longer can. EDF's 350-370 TWh full-year nuclear guidance anchors FR-DE spread economics through August; the September Flamanville-3 overhaul removes 1.6 GW at heating-season start, reversing the surplus that has suppressed Continental clearing all year.
QatarEnergy / Golden Pass commercial position
QatarEnergy / Golden Pass commercial position
The second Golden Pass cargo to Adriatic LNG demonstrates QatarEnergy retaining a commercial European supply position during the Ras Laffan force majeure through its 70% equity stake in the Texas joint venture. The ACER 58% US-share headline carries a Qatari component inside it; the provenance re-labelling is a structural feature of the post-Hormuz supply architecture, not a transitional anomaly.
Japanese and Korean utility buyers (JKM netback discipline)
Japanese and Korean utility buyers (JKM netback discipline)
JKM-TTF spread at USD 2.30 in the week to 7 May leaves Asian buyers with limited price advantage over European bids on spot Atlantic cargoes. At EUR 47-50 TTF, Atlantic LNG routing to Europe is commercially marginal; Korean and Japanese procurement desks see no incentive to release swing cargoes to Europe at JKM parity.
ACER / Teresa Ribera (European Commission)
ACER / Teresa Ribera (European Commission)
ACER's 58% US LNG share, cited by EVP Ribera, risks replacing one energy dependency with another after EUR 117 billion in US LNG since 2022. The 11 June workshop is the formal venue on both the REMIT compliance paradox and Germany's missing fill instrument.