The JKM-TTF arbitrage has all but closed. JKM (the Japan-Korea Marker spot-LNG price) sat near $11.1/MMBtu by 29-30 June, level with TTF and at times below it, so a cargo no longer earns more by sailing to Asia than to Europe1. The Asian pull that had dragged Atlantic cargoes east through the spring has drained.
Until late June the spread had paid shippers to point flexible cargoes at Asian terminals, leaving European berths short. With the legs at parity, the physics now favour Europe. The supply side does not co-operate. QatarEnergy, Qatar's state energy company, still has two LNG trains offline after the March strikes, and its 17 June restart guidance points no earlier than mid-July, capping any Gulf recovery.
The 21 June blast at Ras Laffan, Qatar's main LNG export complex, hit the domestic Barzan gas-processing plant rather than the export trains; energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said LNG exports were unaffected2. So the cap on Gulf supply is the two missing trains, not the Barzan damage. Even so, no named Atlantic cargo has been confirmed turning back toward a European berth. The arbitrage has opened on price; the molecules have not yet moved.
