The JKM-TTF arbitrage, the spread between Asian and European spot gas that decides where a flexible LNG cargo sails, collapsed from USD 5.26/MMBtu on 12 June to about USD 2 by 22-23 June, after holding USD 4.35 as late as 18 June . Two forces pulled from opposite ends. JKM, the north-east Asian spot benchmark, fell 18% week-on-week to around USD 15.3 as Strait of Hormuz risk deflated 1, while the European heatwave held TTF up from the demand side.
Seven Qatar-linked LNG tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz between 11 and 22 June, six of them inbound to reload at Ras Laffan, Qatar's main export complex 2; the one outbound vessel, Al Ghashamiya, carried a cargo loaded on 1 March, pre-conflict stock rather than fresh output. Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said on 24 June that output would return to normal within a few weeks, reaching half its capacity a month after safe passage and four-fifths within two 3. Two destroyed trains still cap recovery near 83% for three to five years .
The routing question may resolve before Qatar lands a fresh molecule. Six inbound tankers reloading at Ras Laffan are positioning, not producing, and the outbound cargo was March inventory. If the arb holds near USD 2, the Atlantic LNG that spent the spring sailing east loses its Asian premium, and the cheapest home for a flexible cargo becomes a European regas berth. Goldman Sachs dates LNG normalisation to end-July ; the spread says Europe could pull cargoes weeks earlier, on relative price alone.
