Timeline
Sabato's Crystal Ball
University of Virginia election forecaster; moved Texas Senate and six House seats in May 2026.
16 of 16 entries (15 events, 1 interactions)
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#15 3 Aug
Mentioned in: Michigan votes with the establishment behind
US Midterms 2026#14 22 Jul
Published the three gubernatorial rating changes
US Midterms 2026: Sabato moves three races for governor#12 29 Jun
Mentioned in: Two Dan Sullivans, one Alaska toss-up
US Midterms 2026#11 27 Jun
Mentioned in: Letlow routs Fleming by 13.6 points
US Midterms 2026#10 18 Jun
Mentioned in: Cook moves seven seats, none back
US Midterms 2026#8 2 Jun
Mentioned in: NJ-7 moves to Toss-up as cash gap holds
US Midterms 2026#7 27 May
Moved six House seats toward Democrats and issued redistricting map assessment
US Midterms 2026: DOJ's own lawyers assert data authority courts reject#7 27 May
Moved Texas Senate and TX-35 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican
US Midterms 2026: Texas Senate, TX-35 both slip to Leans Republican#7 21 May
Sabato moves six House seats toward Democrats
US Midterms 2026#5 4 May
Shifted nine Florida congressional district ratings on signing day
US Midterms 2026: DeSantis signs Florida 24R-4D map into law#4 27 Apr
Moved four Virginia districts toward Democrats on 21 April using similar logic
US Midterms 2026: Cook moves 5 Virginia seats on a voided map#4 17 Apr
Mentioned in: Daines exits; Bodnar leads Montana race
US Midterms 2026#3 13 Apr
Mentioned in: Cook shifts four Senate races to Dems
US Midterms 2026#2 7 Apr
Scranton's Bellwether District Moves to Toss-up
US Midterms 2026#2 7 Apr
#2 30 Mar