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US Midterms 2026
28APR

Daines exits; Bodnar leads Montana race

3 min read
16:18UTC

Steve Daines withdrew from the Montana Republican Senate primary; independent candidate Seth Bodnar leads Q1 fundraising in the state's first open Senate race since 1976.

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PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

An open seat plus an independent fundraising leader breaks the two-way frame Cook still uses for Montana.

Senator Steve Daines withdrew from the Montana Republican primary, vacating the seat ahead of first-quarter fundraising disclosures. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, led Q1 fundraising in what is now Montana's first open Senate race since 1976, according to Daily Montanan reporting. Daines endorsed Republican Kurt Alme, the US Attorney for Montana, on his way out of the primary.

Montana's open seat removes the incumbency advantage that has historically dominated the state's Senate calculus. Montana voted for Trump by 20 points in 2024, but Daines's withdrawal eliminates the incumbent factor that polling models built around incumbent-versus-challenger frames had priced in. Bodnar is running as an independent rather than seeking a major-party nomination; in Montana, that places him on the November ballot directly without a primary, while Republicans contest their open primary among Alme and several second-tier candidates.

A three-way contest is structurally different from a two-way one. Cook Political Report did not include Montana in its 13 April Senate rating shifts. The forecaster's models price Montana as a Republican-likely seat on the assumption that any well-funded Republican holds against any Democratic challenger. An independent leading Q1 fundraising disrupts that assumption without converting Montana into a Democratic-likely seat. Counter-view from Republican strategists: Bodnar's fundraising lead is a single-quarter snapshot, Alme has institutional advantages still to deploy, and the historical record on independent Senate candidates winning in red states is thin. Either reading makes Montana more competitive in May than it was in March.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Republican senator Steve Daines withdrew from the Montana Republican primary, opening the state's Senate race for the first time since 1976. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, is leading early fundraising. Montana voted for Donald Trump by 20 points in 2024, so it should be a comfortable Republican hold. But with no incumbent and an independent in the lead on fundraising, the race is less predictable than it appears on paper.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Daines's withdrawal reflects the same electoral pressure visible in Tillis's SAVE Act vote: Republican senators in states where Trump's margin is declining face a primary-versus-general calculation.

Daines, as the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair, had structural reasons to avoid a primary that might expose him to a Bodnar-type independent in the general while also damaging his NRSC credibility. His withdrawal redirects the question to whether Alme, a US Attorney without statewide name recognition, can build the committee infrastructure and donor network to beat an independent who enters the race already leading on fundraising.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    A competitive Montana three-way race would force the National Republican Senatorial Committee to defend a seat it had not budgeted for, pulling resources from Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, the three states Cook moved toward Democrats in mid-April.

  • Risk

    Bodnar's independent candidacy without major-party infrastructure may collapse in the final two months of the campaign, when television advertising and ground operations require scale that Q1 fundraising does not guarantee.

Sources:Daily Montanan
Mentions:Cook Political Report →Donald Trump →Maine →Sabato's Crystal Ball →England →Steve Daines →Seth Bodnar →Montana →Daily Montanan →Kurt Alme →Angus King →National Republican Senatorial Committee →
First Reported In

Update #4 · Calendar versus court

Daily Montanan· 28 Apr 2026
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