Cook Political Report
Non-partisan US election forecaster; moved two House districts in April 2026 on Democratic momentum.
Last refreshed: 12 April 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
How many House seats has Cook moved toward Democrats since the Georgia 14 runoff?
Latest on Cook Political Report
- What is Cook Political Report and how does it rate House races?
- Cook Political Report is a non-partisan election forecasting service that rates House, Senate, and presidential races on a seven-point scale from SAFE Democrat to SAFE Republican, with Toss-up at the centre.
- Which House districts did Cook Political Report move in April 2026?
- Cook moved Pennsylvania's 8th District from Lean Republican to Toss-up and Ohio's 1st District to Lean Democrat on 7 April 2026, following the Georgia 14th special runoff showing a 25-point Democratic swing.Source: Cook Political Report
Background
The Cook Political Report is the primary non-partisan subscription service used by political operatives, journalists, and academics to assess the competitiveness of US congressional, Senate, and presidential races. On 7 April 2026, Cook moved Pennsylvania's 8th District from Lean Republican to Toss-up and Ohio's 1st District to Lean Democrat, reflecting tariff-driven Democratic momentum following the Georgia 14th District special runoff .
Cook's seven-point competitiveness scale (SAFE, Likely, Lean, Toss-up in each direction) sets the terms of House and Senate forecasting. When Cook moves a district, it shifts how campaigns allocate resources, how donors prioritise contributions, and how national committees decide where to invest. The Scranton-area Pennsylvania 8th is a historically blue-collar bellwether district that voted for Trump in 2024; its movement to Toss-up signals that Trump's economic approval collapse (to 31-35%) is translating into seat-level competition.
Sabato's Crystal Ball (University of Virginia) moved concurrently, shifting eight Democratic seats to SAFE and reclassifying OH-01 and OH-13 to Lean and Likely Democrat. The confluence of Cook and Sabato moves in the same week created a strong institutional signal of Democratic momentum going into the April-May 2026 campaign phase.