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US Midterms 2026
17OCT

Kansas's Marshall outraised 13 to 1

2 min read
17:30UTC

Senator Roger Marshall raised $618,222 from mid-July to 30 September. His Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton, raised $8.27m over the same weeks.

← Back to SLF's gifts to Texas PAC match Musk's to SLFJump to analysis ↓
PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Marshall ended September with under $1m and depends on outside money for late Kansas advertising.

Senator Roger Marshall's campaign in Kansas raised $618,222 between 16 July and 30 September, spent $4.99m and held $922,088 at the end of the period, according to its report filed on 15 October⁠1. Candidates who faced August primaries file from their pre-primary report, so their quarter starts in mid-July. His Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton, raised $8.27m over the same weeks, about 13 times as much, and held $3.18m⁠2. Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Cook Political Report, a non-partisan service that grades races from Solid through Likely and Lean to Toss Up, moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on 6 October, before the money was public. Sabato's Crystal Ball, published by the Center for Politics in Charlottesville, followed on 14 October, after an earlier Kansas shift in September⁠3.

Lauren French, spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the main Democratic Senate super PAC, said on 8 October the group was "watching really closely", yet its booked airtime covers nine states and Kansas is not one of them⁠4.

With under $1m in the bank, Marshall depends on party and outside committees for any late television, the same dependence Paxton's campaign shows in Texas. Cook also moved Representative Derek Schmidt's House seat in Kansas from Solid to Likely Republican on 16 October⁠5.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Roger Marshall is a Republican senator for Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. His Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton, raised about 13 times as much money as Marshall over the summer. Cook Political Report, a widely followed forecaster, now calls the race a Toss Up, meaning either side could win. Campaigns use cash mainly for television ads in the final weeks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Marshall faced an August primary, so his quarter began after costly primary spending. Burning $4.99m while raising $618,222 suggests heavy early outlay on staff and ads before the general election.

Kansas has elected Democratic governors repeatedly while sending only Republicans to the Senate since the 1930s. Ticket-splitting voters exist in numbers large enough to make a Senate race close when the Republican is weak.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Republicans may need to divert outside money to Kansas, a state they had not expected to defend.

  • Opportunity

    Hamilton can define Marshall on air before any outside Republican buy lands.

Sources:KCUR·Federal Election Commission·Federal Election Commission
Mentions:Roger Marshall →Cook Political Report →Sabato's Crystal Ball →Senate Majority PAC →Kansas →National Republican Senatorial Committee →Texas →Adam Hamilton →Derek Schmidt →
First Reported In

Update #20 · SLF's gifts to Texas PAC match Musk's to SLF

KCUR· 17 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Sabato and Cook widen Democrats' map
Raters had already shifted Kansas in September before Cook moved it to Toss Up.
Occurred 23 Sept 2026
Read story →
This Event
Kansas's Marshall outraised 13 to 1
A Republican senator in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 now relies on outside groups for late television.
Different Perspectives
James Talarico's campaign
James Talarico's campaign
Talarico's campaign reported raising $56.34m in the quarter to Ken Paxton's $10.17m, and says he has been off the trail since 30 September with flu. Texas PAC, whose only donor is SLF, has spent $131.5m in the race, more than twice what the campaign spent.
Senate Majority PAC, spokesperson Lauren French
Senate Majority PAC, spokesperson Lauren French
French said on 8 October that the Democratic super PAC was watching Kansas closely, but its booked airtime covers nine states and Kansas is not one. Whether SMP spends there decides if Adam Hamilton's 13-to-1 fundraising edge meets outside Republican money alone.
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State
Raffensperger's office reported 188,667 in-person votes on the first day of early voting, a midterm record. He expects turnout to challenge 2022's near 4m.
Sam Hayes, North Carolina State Board of Elections
Sam Hayes, North Carolina State Board of Elections
Hayes's board reported 1,392 SAVE flags, about 0.02% of the roll, and says no voter will be removed automatically. The board is asking flagged voters to cancel or prove citizenship by letter, while eligible voters keep the right to vote on 3 November.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune
Senate Majority Leader John Thune
Thune, the Senate's Republican leader, said the government-paid ads should not be funded by taxpayers. His objection puts the party's own Senate leadership against the administration on the DHS spending.
The White House and Donald Trump
The White House and Donald Trump
The White House calls the five DHS ads public-service announcements with no call to action; Trump called them "rather standard", then said his political fundraising would pay. A White House official said there are no immediate plans to repay.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.