Julian Cooper is a British academic specialising in Russian and Soviet defence economics, based at the University of Birmingham's CREES. He is best known for his SIPRI-published analysis of Russia's federal budget, which revealed that defence and security consumed 38-40% of all federal spending in 2026, a proportion not seen since the Soviet era.Source: SIPRI

What did Julian Cooper find about Russia's 2026 defence budget?

Cooper's SIPRI analysis showed Russia allocated 16.8 trillion rubles to defence and security in 2026, representing 38-40% of all federal spending. Total military spending reached $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with 84% of the allocation classified. Army and weapons procurement alone stood at 12.93 trillion rubles, the largest budget share since the USSR.Source: SIPRI

How does Russia's 2026 military spending compare to the Soviet Union?

Cooper's analysis found that Russia's 38-40% defence share of federal spending in 2026 matches Soviet-era proportions, a comparison he describes as not merely rhetorical: it reflects a state restructuring its entire fiscal apparatus around sustained military production.Source: SIPRI

Background

Julian Cooper is a British academic who spent decades at the University of Birmingham's Centre for Russian and East European Studies (CREES), establishing himself as a leading Western authority on Soviet and Russian defence economics. His methodology for reading Moscow's deliberately opaque budget structures is widely cited by governments, think tanks, and international institutions.

His SIPRI-published analysis of Russia's 2026 federal budget revealed that 16.8 trillion rubles, representing 38-40% of all federal spending, had been directed to defence and security: a proportion not seen since the Soviet era. Army and weapons procurement alone reached 12.93 trillion rubles. Total military spending stood at $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with 84% of the allocation classified .

The tension in Cooper's work is that it exposes a fiscal architecture Russia actively conceals. The National Wealth Fund has been drawn to historic lows funding the war effort, yet the budget deficit remains a relatively contained 3.78 trillion rubles (1.6% of GDP). Cooper notes that rising energy prices from the Iran conflict could ease Russia's fiscal pressures, adding a cross-theatre dimension to an already striking picture.

More questions

Is 84% of Russia's defence budget really classified?

Yes. Cooper's SIPRI research found that 84% of Russia's 2026 defence and security allocation is classified, making independent verification almost impossible. His methodology reconstructs totals from budget law line items that Moscow does not individually label.Source: SIPRI

What is SIPRI's analysis of Russia's war economy?

SIPRI published Cooper's analysis showing Russia's 2026 defence spending reached $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with the National Wealth Fund drained to historic lows and a budget deficit of 3.78 trillion rubles. Cooper notes the Iran conflict could ease Russia's fiscal pressures through higher energy prices.Source: SIPRI

Source Material

Russia's Military Expenditure — SIPRI Fact Sheets Centre for Russian and East European Studies — University of Birmingham Julian Cooper — SIPRI Senior Researcher Profile