Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Julian Cooper
AI-generated illustration
PersonGB

Julian Cooper

British professor WHO quantified Russia's defence spending at Soviet-era levels for SIPRI.

Julian Cooper's reading of Moscow's 2026 budget found 16.8 trillion roubles going to the Army and security services, 38 to 40% of federal spending and a share unseen since Soviet times; Moscow's 2027 draft, reported on 30 September, raises defence to 17.1 trillion.

Last refreshed: 12 October 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

Is Russia spending a larger share of its economy on war than the Soviet Union?

Timeline for Julian Cooper

View full timeline →
Follow Russia-Ukraine War 2026 →

Background

Julian Cooper is a British economist and one of the leading Western authorities on Soviet and Russian defence economics. He spent decades at the University of Birmingham's Centre for Russian and East European Studies and contributes analysis to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

His method is to read Moscow's budget documents line by line, including the classified share of military spending that Russia does not itemise, and reconstruct what the state actually allocates to the Army, weapons procurement and security services. Governments, think tanks and journalists cite the results because Russia publishes less each year.

His 2026 estimate is the benchmark for Russia's war economy. It put defence and security at 38 to 40% of federal spending, at a time when the National Wealth Fund was shedding 400 billion roubles in two months. Any argument about how long Russia can afford the war starts from his numbers.

Key Issues
Russian war budget

Cooper's count set the Soviet benchmark

Cooper's reading of Russia's 2026 federal budget, published by SIPRI in March, became the reference figure for how much of the Russian state the war consumes. He put defence and security at 16.8 trillion roubles, 38 to 40% of all federal spending, a share not seen since the Soviet era, with the deficit at 3.78 trillion roubles.

Later Russian figures kept the pressure he described. By 30 September Russia had cut its 2026 oil and gas revenue forecast to 7,584bn roubles, 1,335bn short of plan, and reported a January to September deficit of 5.19tn roubles, yet Reuters reported a 2027 draft giving defence a record 17.1tn roubles. In cash terms the 2027 plan sits above his 2026 estimate.

Common Questions
Who is Julian Cooper?
Julian Cooper is a British academic specialising in Russian and Soviet defence economics, based at the University of Birmingham's CREES. He is best known for his SIPRI-published analysis of Russia's federal budget, which revealed that defence and security consumed 38-40% of all federal spending in 2026, a proportion not seen since the Soviet era.Source: SIPRI
What did Julian Cooper find about Russia's 2026 defence budget?
Cooper's SIPRI analysis showed Russia allocated 16.8 trillion rubles to defence and security in 2026, representing 38-40% of all federal spending. Total military spending reached $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with 84% of the allocation classified. Army and weapons procurement alone stood at 12.93 trillion rubles, the largest budget share since the USSR.Source: SIPRI
How does Russia's 2026 military spending compare to the Soviet Union?
Cooper's analysis found that Russia's 38-40% defence share of federal spending in 2026 matches Soviet-era proportions, a comparison he describes as not merely rhetorical: it reflects a state restructuring its entire fiscal apparatus around sustained military production.Source: SIPRI
Is 84% of Russia's defence budget really classified?
Yes. Cooper's SIPRI research found that 84% of Russia's 2026 defence and security allocation is classified, making Independent verification almost impossible. His methodology reconstructs totals from budget law line items that Moscow does not individually label.Source: SIPRI
What is SIPRI's analysis of Russia's war economy?
SIPRI published Cooper's analysis showing Russia's 2026 defence spending reached $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with the National Wealth Fund drained to historic lows and a budget deficit of 3.78 trillion rubles. Cooper notes the Iran conflict could ease Russia's fiscal pressures through higher energy prices.Source: SIPRI
Source Material
Russia's Military Expenditure — SIPRI Fact SheetsCentre for Russian and East European Studies — University of BirminghamJulian Cooper — SIPRI Senior Researcher Profile