Birmingham
England's second city; issued Section 114 in 2023; Labour-held but facing minus-30 projected swing to Reform.
Last refreshed: 6 May 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Can Labour hold Birmingham council after a projected 30-point vote collapse?
Timeline for Birmingham
Mentioned in: Reform base triples to 2,126 councillors
UK Local Elections 2026Mentioned in: Thurrock: Reform 41/49 with no budget
UK Local Elections 2026Projected as one of only two West Midlands councils Labour holds, with 30-point Labour vote drop
UK Local Elections 2026: Reform projected to 2,342 council seatsIssued a Section 114 notice in past two years while simultaneously facing elections and 30-point Labour vote drop
UK Local Elections 2026: 22% of councils on emergency support- Why did Birmingham Council go bankrupt?
- Birmingham City Council issued a Section 114 notice in 2023 after equal pay liabilities reached approximately £760 million, making it the largest local government insolvency in UK history. The council has operated under government commissioners since then.Source: BBC / MHCLG
- Is Birmingham projected to stay Labour after the 2026 local elections?
- YouGov's West Midlands MRP projects Labour retaining Birmingham as one of only two councils in the region, despite a projected minus-30-point swing in Labour vote share — joint-equal largest in the West Midlands.Source: YouGov
- What is the status of Birmingham City Council's Section 114?
- Birmingham City Council has been under Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government commissioners since its 2023 Section 114 notice, with asset sales ongoing and spending severely constrained.Source: MHCLG
- How bad is Reform UK doing in Birmingham council seats?
- YouGov projects Reform UK leading in 11 of 13 West Midlands councils, with Labour holding only Birmingham and Coventry. The minus-30 Labour swing in Birmingham is one of the largest projected in the region.Source: YouGov
Background
Birmingham is England's second city with a population of approximately 1.1 million and the largest local authority in Europe by population. On the eve of the 7 May 2026 local elections, it is one of only two West Midlands councils that Labour is projected to retain, alongside Coventry — in YouGov's West Midlands MRP, Labour's vote share in Birmingham is projected to fall by 30 points, the joint-equal largest collapse in the region.
Birmingham City Council issued a Section 114 notice in 2023 — the largest local government insolvency in UK history — after equal pay liabilities reached approximately £760 million. The city has been operating under Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government commissioners since that notice, with severely constrained spending and asset sales under way. The council's financial collapse became a national symbol of the local government funding crisis.
The juxtaposition of Labour's historic hold on Birmingham's council and the scale of projected vote loss makes the city a national bellwether: if Labour retains Birmingham despite a 30-point swing, the seat mathematics of council control matter more than vote share. If it does not, the result signals a structural collapse of Labour's urban Coalition.