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ASML

Dutch EUV monopolist at the centre of a US-EU confrontation over China chip-export controls.

ASML raised its 2026 sales guidance to EUR43-45bn on 15 July after Q2 systems sold rose to 86, yet named no new European fab to receive its expanded 2027 EUV capacity.

Last refreshed: 4 August 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

Can ASML survive Washington setting the terms for who it may sell to?

Timeline for ASML

#14 4 Aug

Mentioned in: EUR 80m buys European hands, US silicon

European Tech Sovereignty
#12 15 Jul

Raised full-year guidance to €43-45bn and dropped export-control hedge

European Tech Sovereignty: ASML booms, Europe's fab gap holds
#12 7 Jul

Mentioned in: MPs name the UK's sovereignty gap

European Tech Sovereignty
#10 24 Jun

Denied allegations of an unauthorised EUV transfer; shares fell 7% on the news

European Tech Sovereignty: US bill targets ASML's China chip sales
#13 12 Jun

Mentioned in: Washington pulls a live AI model

AI: Jobs, Power & Money
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Background

ASML, based in Eindhoven, is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, the equipment without which no advanced logic chip below 7nm can be produced. Every cutting-edge semiconductor factory in the world depends on ASML, a monopoly built on 30 years of cumulative R&D, a supply chain spanning 5,000 specialist vendors, and patents rivals have not replicated.

ASML's Chinese sales have propped up its own R&D spend for years, a prop now thinning under a US export regime the company must comply with regardless of the cost to its business: China's share of ASML's system sales fell from 36% in Q4 2025 to 19% in Q1 2026 as Washington tightened DUV export restrictions .

In June 2026 Washington's proposed MATCH Act moved from legislative text to live confrontation, asserting US jurisdiction over what ASML may sell or service to Chinese customers, a bill the Dutch cabinet left Washington describing as 'irritated' by . The EU Chips Act's 20%-by-2030 target depends implicitly on ASML's continued dominance.

Key Issues
Europe's fab gap

Its order book still bypasses Europe

ASML's Q2 2026 results, reported 15 July, beat expectations: net sales of EUR9.3bn, gross margin of 54.0%, and 86 lithography systems sold, up from 67 in Q1, prompting a second guidance raise in two quarters to EUR43-45bn . ASML is adding 30% to its 2026 low-numerical-aperture EUV capacity, from around 65 units to around 85, for delivery in 2027, but those units are earmarked for fabs in Taiwan, South Korea and Arizona; no new European leading-edge fab has been named to receive them. That gap sits alongside the ESMC Dresden fab, which depends on ASML's lithography equipment for its own 2027 schedule , underlining that Europe's chip ambitions still run entirely through a single Dutch supplier whose growth is being captured elsewhere.

Common Questions
Is ASML increasing its EUV lithography production capacity?
Yes. ASML is adding 30% to its 2026 low-numerical-aperture EUV capacity for 2027 delivery, from about 65 to about 85 units, to serve fabs in Taiwan, South Korea and Arizona; no new European leading-edge fab has been named to receive the extra capacity.Source: ASML Q2 2026 earnings
Why did ASML stop mentioning export controls in its Q2 2026 results?
ASML's Q2 2026 release and earnings call made no reference to the MATCH Act or export-control risk, dropping the hedge language it had carried in Q1 guidance, even though the US bill governing its China DUV sales remained live in Congress.Source: ASML Q2 2026 earnings call
Did ASML's China revenue keep falling in Q2 2026?
No. China guided at roughly 20% of full-year 2026 sales, close to Q1's 19% and well below the 36% share of late 2025, showing the earlier collapse has stabilised rather than continued.Source: ASML Q2 2026 earnings
What is the MATCH Act and how does it affect ASML?
The MATCH Act is a bipartisan US bill introduced April 2026 that would ban DUV lithography sales and servicing to Chinese chipmakers. It would give Washington authority to govern what ASML, based in the Netherlands, may sell to Chinese customers. The Dutch Cabinet Left Washington in June 2026 describing itself as "irritated" by the proposal.Source: Lowdown
Can ASML sell chip machines to China?
ASML cannot legally sell EUV machines to China; the Netherlands has enforced that ban since 2019. DUV machines could still be sold until June 2026, but the proposed US MATCH Act would ban those sales too, and Washington also alleged an unauthorised EUV transfer to China in June 2026, which ASML denied.Source: ASML, Dutch government
How much of ASML's revenue comes from China and is it falling?
China's share of ASML system sales fell from 36% in Q4 2025 to 19% in Q1 2026 — a decline of roughly €1.8bn in a single quarter driven by tightened US DUV export restrictions. Q2 2026 guidance midpoint of €8.7bn suggests the trend is continuing.Source: Lowdown
Why did ASML's Q2 2026 guidance miss analyst expectations?
ASML's Q2 2026 guidance midpoint of €8.7bn came in roughly €300m below analyst consensus of €9.0bn, reflecting the sustained impact of US DUV export restrictions that cut China's share of system sales from 36% to 19% in Q1 2026.Source: Lowdown
What is the Chips Act II and how does it affect ASML?
Chips Act II, reported in late April 2026, would grant the European Commission direct equity-stake authority in semiconductor companies. If enacted, it could apply to ASML or its supply chain, giving Brussels a formal stake in Europe's most strategically irreplaceable firm.Source: Lowdown
Who is ASML's CEO?
Christophe Fouquet is CEO of ASML. He described Q1 2026 guidance as accommodating 'potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls'.Source: ASML Q1 2026 earnings
What is ASML's role in EU semiconductor sovereignty?
ASML is the world's only EUV lithography machine manufacturer. Every advanced chip below 7nm requires ASML equipment. The EU Chips Act's target of 20% global production share depends on ASML remaining European-headquartered and accessible to EU fabs.Source: European Commission, ASML
What does ASML actually make and why is it irreplaceable?
ASML is the sole global producer of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, the equipment required to manufacture advanced logic chips below 7nm. No rival has been able to replicate its 30 years of cumulative R&D and 5,000-vendor supply chain.
Why did the Dutch government call itself irritated over ASML in Washington?
The Dutch Cabinet visited Washington on 24 June 2026 and Left describing itself as "irritated" after the US pressed for the MATCH Act, which would let Washington determine what ASML may sell or service to Chinese customers, effectively overriding Dutch export-control jurisdiction over the country's most strategically important company.Source: Lowdown
Why did ASML's China revenue fall so sharply in Q1 2026?
China's share of ASML system sales fell from 36% in Q4 2025 to 19% in Q1 2026, a decline of roughly €1.8bn in one quarter, driven by tightened US restrictions on DUV lithography exports to Chinese chipmakers.Source: ASML Q1 2026 earnings report