Adi Imsirovic

Adi Imsirovic is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) (an independent research body associated with the University of Oxford) and a Research Associate at the Surrey Centre for the New Energy Economy at the University of Surrey. A former senior executive at Gazprom Marketing and Trading, he spent decades structuring physical crude and oil derivative contracts, and is regarded as one of the foremost independent authorities on crude pricing benchmarks, particularly Brent Crude and the Dated Brent assessment process.

As the Iran-Israel-US conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, Imsirovic called $200 per barrel "perfectly possible" and described it as "a major handbrake to world economy" (the most striking named forecast at the moment Brent touched $119 intraday. His view was cited alongside those of Ann-Louise Hittle (Wood Mackenzie) and Vandana Hari (Vanda Insights) as the high-end analyst consensus during the peak of the supply shock . The tension in his position is credibility versus catastrophism: his benchmark expertise lends weight to the forecast, but at $200 Brent, Oxford Economics assessed the global economy would tip into recession .

Imsirovic writes and contributes analysis to Energy Aspects and publishes commentary through Reuters. His research focuses on benchmark design and the governance of physical crude price discovery) making him a rare analyst whose warnings about extreme price scenarios carry market-structure authority, not just macro forecasting.