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US Midterms 2026
5NOV

Raters tip Ohio governor's race to Acton

2 min read
00:50UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report moved Ohio's governor's race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton to Lean Democrat on 22 and 23 October, as SLF filed $12.07m against Sherrod Brown.

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PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Two forecasters moved Ohio's governor's race to Lean Democrat as SLF spent $12.07m in the Senate race.

Sabato's Crystal Ball on 22 October and the Cook Political Report a day later both moved Ohio's governor's race to Lean Democrat⁠1. The contest pits Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican, against Amy Acton, the Democrat. Cook wrote that Ramaswamy's "deeply personal attack ad" against Acton confirmed "the race is slipping away from him", with possible "collateral damage for fellow Republicans"⁠2. Forecasters grade races Solid, Likely, Lean or Toss Up.

That damage, if it comes, would land on the Senate race on the same ballot. Republican-side groups filed $17.03m in Ohio's Senate race in reports received from 22 to 26 October, against $8.21m for Democrats⁠3. The Senate Leadership Fund's share was $12.51m, $12.07m of it against Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator, after $13.74m against him in the week before. Across October filings the two sides are close, $93.60m Republican to $91.11m Democratic.

The party committees tilt the other way. The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) spent $4.76m with Brown from 1 to 14 October⁠4; the National Republican Senatorial Committee spent $2.05m with Jon Husted, the Republican senator Brown is challenging, down from $11.81m in September⁠5. Lower Costs Now has added $7.52m against Husted.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ohio votes on 3 November for both a governor and a senator. For governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state's former health director. Two leading race-rating services now say Acton has the edge. For the Senate, Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Senate super PAC, has spent heavily against Brown in the last week. Overall October spending on the two sides is close.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Ohio holds a special Senate election this year because JD Vance left the Senate to become Vice-President, and Governor Mike DeWine appointed Jon Husted to the seat in January 2025. That puts both statewide races on one ballot.

Brown lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024, so he runs as a former senator with high name recognition but a recent defeat in the state.

Sources:Federal Election Commission·Federal Election Commission·Federal Election Commission
Mentions:Cook Political Report →Sabato's Crystal Ball →Vivek Ramaswamy →Amy Acton →Ohio →Senate Leadership Fund →Senator Sherrod Brown →Jon Husted →DSCC →National Republican Senatorial Committee →Lower Costs Now →JD Vance →Bernie Moreno →Mike DeWine →US Senate →Democratic Party →
First Reported In

Update #22 · Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

Federal Election Commission· 27 Oct 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
SLF opens a $4.06m South Carolina front
SLF added $12.07m against Sherrod Brown after leading its 15 to 21 October filings with $13.74m against him.
Occurred 21 Oct 2026
Read story →
This Event
Raters tip Ohio governor's race to Acton
Two forecasters now favour the Democrat for Ohio governor, while SLF spent $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in the Senate race on the same ballot.
Led to
SLF's final $43.9m: 7 of 10 targets won
SLF followed $12.07m against Sherrod Brown with a further $12.37m.
Occurred 1 Nov 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Missouri voters
Missouri voters
Missouri voters rejected Proposition A by 61.83% to 38.17% at 95% reporting, repealing the 2025 map that split Kansas City. Trump carried the state, yet its 2022 lines now stay for future elections too.
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF reported about $43.9m of independent expenditures from 27 October to 1 November, almost all against Democrats, including $12.37m against Sherrod Brown. Seven of its ten targets won; Dan Osborn lost in Nebraska and two are uncalled.
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Hudson, who runs House Republicans' campaign arm, conceded North Carolina's 9th District to Richard Ojeda before any AP call. Democrats lead 10 of the state's 14 House districts on the unofficial feed.
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
DOJ lost before Judge David O. Carter on 28 October and a 9th Circuit panel on 30 October on its demand to set aside 20,000 California ballots, and says it will appeal the Alaska dismissal. No court has set a ballot aside.
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Sullivan, who trails Mary Peltola 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices, told CNN he would accept the result. DOJ's suit to stop Alaska certifying anyone but him was dismissed on 1 November.
Scott Colom's campaign
Scott Colom's campaign
Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots remain to be counted in a race he leads by roughly 65 to 100 votes. Those ballots count only if voters confirm their ID or eligibility by 5pm on 10 November.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.