A Rigamer poll taken 15 to 16 June put Julia Letlow at 40.2% against John Fleming's 38.2%, inside the margin of error, after a Kaplan survey in early June had her ahead 52 to 371. Letlow's double-digit lead in the Louisiana Senate runoff has evaporated in a fortnight. Letlow then declined Fleming's challenge to three debates, citing time with voters. The runoff falls on 27 June, after this briefing publishes, so what follows is a trajectory rather than a result.
Louisiana runs an all-party primary, in which the top two finishers advance regardless of party. Bill Cassidy came third, leaving two Republicans and no Democrat in the runoff, so the contest pits money against insurgency rather than red against blue. The Accountability Project, a pro-Letlow super PAC reported to be aligned with Governor Jeff Landry, has now committed more than $6 million in independent expenditures, outside spending that the law bars from coordinating with a campaign, after its first $1 million filing on 5 June. Fleming has closed to a tie on almost nothing.
Texas produced the same shape last month. Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn by 28 points in the Texas Senate runoff despite a nine-to-one spending disadvantage, a result that pushed Cook and Sabato to move Texas Senate to Leans Republican the next day. Runoff electorates are tiny and motivation-driven, the exact terrain where an insurgent with intensity can erase a lead built on name recognition and endorsements. A Letlow win on $6 million of outside money would reassure committees that the cheque still clears; a Fleming win would mark two straight runoffs where it did not.
