Senator Roger Marshall's campaign in Kansas raised $618,222 between 16 July and 30 September, spent $4.99m and held $922,088 at the end of the period, according to its report filed on 15 October1. Candidates who faced August primaries file from their pre-primary report, so their quarter starts in mid-July. His Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton, raised $8.27m over the same weeks, about 13 times as much, and held $3.18m2. Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
Cook Political Report, a non-partisan service that grades races from Solid through Likely and Lean to Toss Up, moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on 6 October, before the money was public. Sabato's Crystal Ball, published by the Center for Politics in Charlottesville, followed on 14 October, after an earlier Kansas shift in September3.
Lauren French, spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the main Democratic Senate super PAC, said on 8 October the group was "watching really closely"4; two days later WinSenate, the affiliate through which SMP buys its advertising, began spending against Marshall in Kansas.
With under $1m in the bank, Marshall depends on party and outside committees for any late television, the same dependence Paxton's campaign shows in Texas. Cook also moved Representative Derek Schmidt's House seat in Kansas from Solid to Likely Republican on 16 October5.
