On 7 May 2026 Wales will run its first election under a brand-new closed-list proportional system, expanding the Senedd from 60 to 96 seats, with incumbent First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to lose her own seat and Welsh Labour on course to fall from 29 seats to around 12.
British democratic infrastructure is being rewritten during the campaign, not after it.
An Electoral Calculus Holyrood MRP published on 7 April 2026 projects the SNP on 67 seats, two above the 65-seat majority line, on fieldwork from 4,105 respondents taken 13-31 March.
Electoral Calculus published a Holyrood MRP on 7 April 2026, based on fieldwork from 4,105 respondents taken 13-31 March 2026, projecting the SNP on 67 seats — two above the 65-seat majority threshold — with Reform UK on 14 regional list seats and zero constituencies.
An outright SNP majority under AMS is mathematically difficult because the regional list compensates for constituency over-performance. The model projects one anyway.
Secretary of State Steve Reed formally reversed the postponement of 30 local elections on 16 February 2026, citing updated legal advice, and the government agreed to pay Reform UK's £100,000 Divisional Court costs.
Steve Reed MP formally reversed the government's policy of postponing 30 local elections on 16 February 2026, citing updated legal advice, and committed £63 million to support the 21 LGR areas that would now run elections. The government also agreed to pay Reform UK's legal costs of approximately £100,000 after Reform's Divisional Court challenge.
It is the first time in the Electoral Commission's records that a sitting government has covered an opposition party's legal costs after a failed election postponement.
The Senedd voted 40-12 on 24 September 2024 to withdraw the bill that would have forced parties to alternate men and women on their closed lists. The 96-seat chamber now enters its first PR election with no legal floor on women's representation.
The Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill, which would have mandated gender zipping on closed party lists, was withdrawn by a 40-12 Senedd vote on 24 September 2024, leaving the 2026 election with no statutory gender floor under the new closed-list PR system.
Closed-list PR without a quota hands parties, not voters, the final call on gender composition for the full 2026-2031 term.
An ITV News Wales poll with fieldwork 9-18 March 2026 puts First Minister Eluned Morgan below the 12 per cent entry threshold in Ceredigion Penfro, the mid-Wales constituency where she leads the Labour list.
ITV News Wales published a poll with fieldwork 9-18 March 2026 projecting that First Minister Eluned Morgan, lead candidate on the Labour list for Ceredigion Penfro, is polling below the entry threshold in her own constituency.
A sitting First Minister losing her seat in the first PR election would be unprecedented in devolved Welsh politics.
YouGov's first 2026 Senedd MRP projects Plaid Cymru on 43 seats, Reform UK on 30, Welsh Labour on 12, the Greens on 10 and the Welsh Conservatives on a single seat.
YouGov published its first 2026 Senedd MRP projecting Plaid Cymru on 43 seats, Reform UK on 30, Labour on 12, The Greens on 10 and the Welsh Conservatives on one from 96 total seats under the new closed-list PR system.
The model is the first seat-by-seat projection of a Senedd under closed-list PR, and it puts Welsh Labour at its weakest position since devolution.
PollCheck's five-poll average on 1 April 2026 put Plaid Cymru on 28.4 per cent and Reform UK on 27.6 per cent, separated by 0.8 points with thirty days remaining until polling.
PollCheck's five-poll average published on 1 April 2026 placed Plaid Cymru on 28.4 per cent and Reform UK on 27.6 per cent, with Welsh Labour at 18 per cent, thirty days before the Senedd election.
A Welsh nationalist party and a right-populist insurgency within 0.8 points at T-30 has no precedent in devolved Welsh polling.
The Surrey (Structural Changes) Order 2026 was signed on 9 March 2026, creating East Surrey (72 councillors) and West Surrey (90 councillors) with vesting day set for 1 April 2027.
The Surrey (Structural Changes) Order 2026 was signed on 9 March 2026, creating East Surrey Council (72 councillors across 36 wards) and West Surrey Council (90 councillors across 45 wards), with vesting day set for 1 April 2027. Voters on 7 May 2026 will elect 162 shadow councillors to bodies that have no legal existence at the time of the election.
Surrey voters on 7 May will elect 162 councillors to shadow authorities with no current legal existence, for a single five-year term with no interim re-election.
The government postponed six Devolution Priority Programme mayoral elections: Cheshire and Warrington plus Cumbria to 2027, and Greater Essex, Hampshire and the Solent, Norfolk and Suffolk, and Sussex and Brighton to 2028.
Six Devolution Priority Programme mayoral elections were postponed by the government: Cheshire and Warrington plus Cumbria to May 2027; Greater Essex, Hampshire and the Solent, Norfolk and Suffolk, and Sussex and Brighton to May 2028.
Four of the six postponed mayoralties cover counties holding full council elections on 7 May, creating a 24-month accountability gap between county vote and combined-authority leadership.
On 25 March 2026 MHCLG confirmed the new unitary structure for Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk and Suffolk: 16 new unitary authorities across four counties, replacing existing county and district arrangements.
MHCLG announced on 25 March 2026 decisions for Local Government Reorganisation creating new unitaries in Essex/Southend/Thurrock (5 unitaries), Hampshire/IoW/Portsmouth/Southampton (5 unitaries), Norfolk (3 unitaries) and Suffolk (3 unitaries).
The 25 March decisions define the shape of local government across four shire counties, but the mayoral layer above them does not arrive until 2028.
The Electoral Commission's Q3 2025 report records Reform UK taking £10.5m between July and September, including a £9m donation from Christopher Harborne that is the largest single donation to a UK party from a living individual since records began.
The Electoral Commission's Q3 2025 donation report published in late 2025 recorded Reform UK accepting just over £10.5 million between July and September 2025, including a £9 million donation from Christopher Harborne — the largest single donation to a UK party from a living individual since Electoral Commission records began.
Reform UK is funded at a scale that is not explained by either a grassroots base or traditional corporate giving.
Scottish Parliament nominations closed on 1 April 2026 with 39 MSPs retiring, the highest number for any Holyrood election since the parliament was founded in 1999.
Scottish Parliament nominations closed on 1 April 2026, with a record 39 MSPs retiring — the highest number for any Holyrood election.
A retirement cohort this large, combined with the first new boundaries since 2011, strips institutional memory from the chamber elected in May.
The Scottish Parliament formally dissolves on 9 April 2026, having entered recess on 26 March, marking the legal start of the short campaign for the 6 May Holyrood election.
Scottish Parliament dissolution is formally scheduled for 9 April 2026, after it entered recess on 26 March.
Dissolution triggers the statutory spending limits and publication rules that govern the final four weeks of the campaign.
Robert Jenrick MP told a Commons adjournment debate on 9 February 2026 that legal advice received during his own time as Secretary of State had already established that postponing local elections for a second year was not legally sustainable.
Robert Jenrick MP told a Commons adjournment debate on 9 February 2026 that legal advice received during his own tenure as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government had already established that postponing local elections for a second year was not legally sustainable.
If the Conservative-era advice is what Jenrick describes, the Starmer government either took the same advice and proceeded anyway, or reached for the policy without checking its own departmental file.
The Electoral Commission's Q4 2025 report shows Reform UK on £5.4m, the Conservatives on £4m and Labour on £1.98m, with a further £3m from Harborne in the period taking his six-month total to roughly £12m.
The Electoral Commission's Q4 2025 donation report, published in February 2026, showed Reform UK on £5.4 million, the Conservative Party on £4 million and Labour on £1.98 million. A further £3 million donation from Harborne appeared in the Q4 report, bringing his total to approximately £12 million in six months.
Reform out-raised Labour by 2.7 times in the quarter immediately before the pre-election regulated period began.
As of 7 April 2026, Democracy Club had ingested Statement of Persons Nominated data from 81 of 3,074 areas (2.6 per cent), all of them Scottish, leaving no independent candidate count for England, Wales or the mayoralties.
As of 7 April 2026, with 30 days to polling, Democracy Club's candidate database had ingested Statement of Persons Nominated data from only 81 of 3,074 areas — 2.6 per cent — all of them Scottish. English local, Welsh Senedd, and mayoral areas show zero imported areas.
No verified national candidate total exists for the 2026 elections, and all pre-election coverage quoting figures is using party self-declared numbers.
Wales holds its first Senedd election under a new closed-list proportional representation system on 7 May 2026, expanding the chamber from 60 to 96 seats across 16 six-member constituencies allocated by D'Hondt.
Wales will hold its first Senedd election on 7 May 2026 under a new closed-list proportional representation system expanding the chamber from 60 to 96 seats across 16 six-member constituencies, with seats allocated by the D'Hondt method.
The 7 May vote is the largest single change to the Welsh electoral system since devolution began in 1999.
The transition is accelerating on two clear axes. In Wales, the shift from a Labour-Conservative dominant frame to a four-way Plaid-Reform-Green-Labour contest is completing in a single election cycle; the MRP projections show both Labour and the Conservatives together on 13 of 96 seats. In Scotland, the SNP majority projection represents a consolidation of the independence bloc at a moment when Reform UK is simultaneously absorbing former Conservative voters on the regional list. The English accountability-void pattern is not plateauing: six additional mayoral areas were added to the postponement list extending to 2028, while the LGR unitary decisions for Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk and Suffolk announced on 25 March 2026 create further structural transitions without resolved governance timelines.
