1APR

Brent Last Day book stays thin as WTI length holds

2 min read

16:30UTC

Managed money held a thin NYMEX Brent Last Day net long of 8,130 contracts in the week to 16 June as Brent broke to a fresh three-month low, while its NYMEX WTI net long stood at 96,228.

← Back to Ukraine halves Russia's Baltic oil exports Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

A thin Brent book into a loaded fortnight converts ordinary catalysts into gap risk, whichever way price breaks.

Managed money held a NYMEX Brent Last Day net long of 8,130 contracts in the week to 16 June, up from 6,799 two weeks earlier, while NYMEX WTI money managers held +96,228, the CFTC reported on Monday 22 June⁠¹. On ICE Futures Europe's smaller WTI contract, managed money was net short 23,666. The Commitments of Traders release was delayed two days by the Juneteenth holiday. The dual crude net long that rebuilt in early June survived the selloff.

Three weeks ago the Brent Last Day book was already small and long, with Brent at $92.69. The screen has since marked the entire Iran risk premium out of crude after OFAC authorised Iranian crude sales⁠². The Brent Last Day book has little length to liquidate and no crowded short to fuel a mechanical rally; the WTI book still carries heavy length.

Three catalysts now sit inside a single fortnight. ISAB Priolo, the Lukoil refinery in Sicily, faces a sanctions deadline this weekend. US distillates have just posted their first build in weeks. An August double-expiry of GL X and the Islamabad framework, the US-Iran memorandum signed 15 June that set a 60-day diplomatic clock, waits beyond. Each lands into a thin Brent book and a heavy WTI book.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Hedge funds and commodity trading advisers use oil futures contracts to bet on whether crude prices will rise or fall. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes a weekly report called the Commitments of Traders (COT) showing how these funds are positioned. In the Brent Last Day contract that the CFTC reports, these funds held a small bet on rising prices: a net long of 8,130 contracts, up from 6,799 two weeks earlier. In US crude (NYMEX WTI) they held a much larger bet on rising prices, a net long of 96,228. The CFTC data is published each Friday for positions held the prior Tuesday. With the Brent book near-neutral, any surprise news, positive or negative, can move Brent sharply because there are few established positions acting as a buffer against the initial move. The next fortnight contains three specific deadlines that could move prices significantly in either direction: the ISAB Priolo refinery ownership deadline on 28 June, the GL X Iranian supply window running to 21 August, and the August double-expiry of the Islamabad diplomatic framework.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The flat-price fall over these three weeks traces to a sequential unwinding of three overlapping bull theses, each built at a different price level between 2 June and 22 June. The Hormuz risk premium, which drove Brent to a $97.82 peak, was the first layer; the US-Iran MOU of 15 June started unwinding it.

The Russian supply disruption premium, which the GL 134C lapse was expected to tighten further, failed to produce visible market tightening as an observable disruption; that layer also came off. GL X on 22 June completed the carry-out of the remaining long inventory.

NYMEX WTI managed money held +96,228 net long; the -23,666 net short sat on ICE Futures Europe's smaller WTI contract, so the data do not show a long Brent, short WTI spread book.

What could happen next?

Risk
With managed-money near-neutral on Brent, a bullish surprise on the ISAB, GL X, or Islamabad catalysts faces no short-covering buffer to amplify the move; the first directional session will set the entry point for the next structural position, making the 22-26 June catalyst window the pivotal price-discovery moment for Q3 positioning.
Consequence
NYMEX WTI remaining net short at -23,666 while Brent reached marginal long creates a $3-5/bbl Brent-WTI spread vulnerability: if WTI shorts cover in a bullish catalyst, the spread compresses, punishing managers holding the paired long-Brent/short-WTI structure.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In late June 2022, managed money on ICE Brent flushed from roughly 400,000 net long to under 50,000 contracts in six weeks as China lockdown and recession fears mounted; the book reached near-neutral before recovering to 150,000 as physical tightness reasserted over three months. The structural point is that near-neutral positioning preceded the physical market correcting the price misalignment, but the recovery took a quarter, not days.

Counter-parallel: Late 2018 offers no precedent for a WTI short: NYMEX WTI managed money stayed net long from October 2018 to March 2019, never below +59,699 (8 January 2019). Today's CFTC data likewise show NYMEX WTI and Brent Last Day managed money both net long.

Consensus view: Energy Aspects, the London oil analytics firm whose co-founder Amrita Sen tracks CFTC positioning against physical fundamentals, assesses that a near-neutral book entering a catalyst window amplifies the first directional move: there are no established positions to absorb buying or selling, so price discovery overshoots before the physical market reasserts.

Counter-view: NYMEX WTI managed money held +96,228 net long in the same week, so the crude book as a whole was not flat; only the Brent Last Day leg was thin.

Key tension: Whether the heavy WTI length or the thin Brent Last Day book sets the response to the next catalyst.

Sources:CFTC

Mentions:CFTC →OFAC →ISAB →London →Islamabad →Sicily →Iran →Daan Struyven →Goldman Sachs →Energy Aspects →China →Lukoil →Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding →Brent-WTI →Commitments of Traders →West Texas Intermediate →Brent Crude →

First Reported In

Update #11 · Thin Brent book, heavy WTI length into a loaded week

CFTC· 26 Jun 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Longs rebuilt into an 8-week low

The dual crude net-long that rebuilt in early June (ID:4201) did not survive the selloff; the week-to-16-June COT print of +8,130 shows the completion of that flush.

Occurred 12 Jun 2026

Read story →

This Event

Brent Last Day book stays thin as WTI length holds

Low conviction into three hard catalysts in one fortnight turns ordinary headlines into gap risk, whichever way price breaks.

Led to

WTI longs hold, Brent book stays thin

The Brent book flush to +8,130 left WTI as the dominant crude long, amplifying the spec divergence reflected in the 23 June positioning print.

Occurred 27 Jun 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Bulgarian government

Bulgaria's Prime Minister, Rumen Radev, said the sinking of HS Dignity "benefits the Russian Federation" while saying Bulgaria lacked solid evidence to accuse anyone, and Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov asked NATO for air defence on 16 October. The request comes from a government that stopped state military aid to Ukraine in June.

Radoslaw Sikorski

Poland's foreign minister challenged Elon Musk on X after SpaceX capped Ukraine's Starshield terminals on 14 October. Poland pays about $50m a year for Ukraine's Starlink subscriptions, so Warsaw speaks as the paying customer as well as the ally.

Andy Burnham

Burnham fast-tracked £10m of a £45m air-defence missile delivery when Zelenskyy visited London on 14 October, and his ministers are lobbying allies to ban maritime services for Russian liquefied natural gas. The measure targets insurers and shipowners, many of them in London, rather than the gas itself.

Ministry of External Affairs (India)

India's foreign ministry said after the 16 September House vote that New Delhi would take all necessary measures to protect its trade.

European Council

EU leaders on 15-16 October rejected a US idea to hand Washington the roughly €200bn of frozen Russian assets held in Europe, and Kaja Kallas said the decision belongs to Europeans. The same summit put off a decision on financing Ukraine, saying leaders "will revert to the issue in a timely manner".

Donald Trump

Trump signed the 16 October order that sets the Graham Act's duties and waives them under section 115(a), with a certification sent to Congress. He says the United States has not stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and on 11 October he said both sides had agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.