Ukrainian forces advanced 10–12 km in two drives through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reclaiming 460 sq km and eight settlements since late January1. The Institute for the Study of War assessed these counterattacks have "significantly complicated Russia's plans" for a spring offensive toward Orikhiv2.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported 300–400 sq km captured during February. The updated figure suggests continued momentum into March. This is Ukraine's first net territorial gain since the 2023 counteroffensive failed to breach Russian defensive lines in the same Zaporizhzhia sector — a failure that cost the previous commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, his post.
The advance forced a redeployment. Russia moved elite airborne and naval infantry from the Donetsk axis — where it was pressing toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — to contain the southern push3. Every battalion moved south is one not advancing on Kostiantynivka. Moscow is now sustaining three simultaneous operations: Donetsk, the Sumy–Kharkiv buffer zone, and a defensive posture in Zaporizhzhia.
The Moscow Times described the front on 3 March as "unstable equilibrium"4. Whether Ukraine can hold these gains through the spring thaw — when mud restricts armoured movement and complicates resupply — will determine if the Zaporizhzhia sector becomes a lasting salient or a temporary bulge.
