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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Brent grinds to $70 into OPEC+ weekend

2 min read
10:59UTC

Brent fell toward $70 and WTI to around $68 on Thursday 2 July, a fresh leg below the $78.96 three-month low as OPEC+ supply anticipation and a fading Hormuz premium outpaced products.

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Key takeaway

Brent ground toward $70 as supply anticipation and a fading Hormuz premium outpaced the product complex.

Brent traded near $70.6 to $71.7 a barrel on Thursday 2 July, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $68, a fresh leg below the $78.96 three-month low of 17 June and the roughly 30% drop that closed the second quarter. The global crude benchmark is falling faster than the refined-product complex, widening the gap this desk trades between crude and cracks.⁠1

Two forces sit behind the slide. Traders are pricing in more OPEC+ supply at the weekend ministerial, and the Strait of Hormuz risk premium is bleeding out as the corridor reopens without incident. Neither force touches the physical diesel balance in Rotterdam.

A crude tape near $70 against a European gasoil crack still near two-year highs leaves the barrel repriced and the refining margin untouched. The desk trades that divergence, not the direction of Brent.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent Crude, the global benchmark oil price, fell to about $71 a barrel on 2 July; WTI, the US benchmark, fell to about $68 a barrel the same day. Both hit their lowest levels in months. Two things are pushing prices down at once: producers are expected to pump more oil from August, and the fear premium built into the price after tensions near the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, is fading as ships pass through without incident.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

OPEC+'s calendar-based unwind adds a fixed roughly 188,000 barrels a day each month regardless of price, a mechanical supply addition the market can forecast and therefore pre-price before the Sunday vote even happens.

The Hormuz risk premium, meanwhile, is a one-way ratchet: once shippers and insurers requalify the strait as safe to transit, war-risk premiums come off and will not go back on until a fresh incident forces reassessment, so the premium bleeds out faster than it built . Both mechanisms are landing in the same week, which is why Brent's slide below $71 looks compounded rather than coincidental.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A sub-$71 Brent print raises the odds OPEC+ tempers or pauses the next quota hike to defend price, a live decision point at Sunday's ministerial.

Sources:Trading Economics
Mentions:Brent Crude →West Texas Intermediate →Strait of Hormuz →OPEC+ →Texas →Iran →Moscow →Daan Struyven →Goldman Sachs →OPEC →Saudi Arabia →Rotterdam →Brent-WTI →
First Reported In

Update #13 · Distillate deficit eases; the crack won't

Trading Economics· 3 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Brent hit a three-month low at $79
A fresh leg lower from the $78.96 three-month low reached on 17 June.
Occurred 17 Jun 2026
Read story →
Brent ends worst quarter since 2020
Extends the roughly 30% quarterly decline that closed Q2 on 30 June.
Occurred 30 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent grinds to $70 into OPEC+ weekend
Brent is falling faster than refined products, widening the crude-to-crack gap this desk trades into the OPEC+ weekend.
Led to
Brent-WTI blows out as price sits still
The pre-vote Brent-WTI level near $2 (ID:4727) is the baseline the spread widened from.
Occurred 6 Jul 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
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Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
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Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
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