16MAY

Mojtaba speaks via proxy, unseen

3 min read

12:41UTC

The new Supreme Leader's first public statement was read by another person while a photograph was displayed. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen since taking office — raising the question of who actually commands Iran's war.

← Back to Two Hormuz papers; Washington on neither Jump to analysis ↓

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Key takeaway

A Supreme Leader who cannot be seen cannot perform the arbitration function that holds Iran's parallel power structures together.

Iran's state media broadcast the first public statement from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday. He did not appear on camera. Another person read his words. A photograph was displayed. The content confirmed existing policy — "The lever of blocking the strait of Hormuz must continue to be used" — and added an open-ended threat: "Studies have been conducted regarding the opening of other fronts in which the enemy has little experience and is highly vulnerable." He did not specify which fronts.

The statement's form matters more than its substance. Since the Assembly of Experts appointed him under IRGC pressure on 7 March — with eight members boycotting the vote — Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public. Iran International reported it remains unclear whether Thursday's statement is genuinely his. Iran's constitutional architecture rests on velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the Islamic jurist — a doctrine that presupposes personal clerical standing and visible public authority. Ali Khamenei governed through Friday sermons, military inspections, and televised audiences with officials over 35 years. His son is governing through unsigned text read aloud by someone else.

The practical consequence is a question of command. The IRGC pledged "complete obedience" within hours of the appointment , but the Council on Foreign Relations assessed that Mojtaba Khamenei holds only a "minimum viable legitimacy base" to sustain the war effort . If The Supreme Leader cannot appear — whether because of Israeli assassination threats , injury, or factional constraint — operational authority rests with the IRGC's 31 provincial commanders by default. Those commanders have already demonstrated they can sustain coordinated offensive operations without central command infrastructure, launching 109 drones and 9 ballistic missiles at UAE targets in a single day after Israel destroyed the IRGC's aerospace and drone headquarters in Tehran , . Iran may be fighting a war in which the nominal commander-in-chief issues written directives no one can verify, while the military's decentralised structure makes the real decisions on the ground.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran runs two overlapping power systems. The elected government — led by President Pezeshkian — handles diplomacy and day-to-day administration. The unelected Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over the military, nuclear programme, and strategic direction. The Supreme Leader's power is personal: it rests on religious standing, physical presence, and the ability to arbitrate disputes between Iran's competing factions in real time. When Mojtaba Khamenei issues a written statement read aloud by someone else, it is the equivalent of a company's chief executive communicating only through anonymous press releases. No one can question him directly. Factions within Iran's security establishment — particularly the IRGC — can interpret any ambiguous order in whatever way suits their preferred course of action. The IRGC, which controls Iran's military and operates largely outside presidential authority, has every structural incentive to claim ambiguous directives support escalation.

Deep Analysis

Synthesis

The gap between Pezeshkian's ceasefire conditions and Khamenei's 'new fronts' language is not merely a policy disagreement — it is evidence that no single authority is co-ordinating Iranian strategy. In a state with this degree of internal fracture, de-escalation requires not just a ceasefire agreement but a domestic political settlement that does not currently exist. Any deal Pezeshkian signs could be immediately repudiated by IRGC commanders citing Khamenei's 'new fronts' directive as superseding it.

Root Causes

Mojtaba Khamenei's absence likely reflects two compounding factors. Physical security concerns following his father's death in the 28 February strikes are one element. The deeper issue is a legitimacy deficit inherent in his rapid elevation: he was appointed without the decades of public religious scholarship traditionally required before the Assembly of Experts validates a Supreme Leader. His authority has not been consolidated through the constitutional process in the manner his father's was, leaving it structurally contested from within the clerical establishment.

Escalation

The 'other fronts' language is operationally significant in a specific way. Given the same-day Stryker cyberattack and drone boat deployments documented in other events, the statement may be retrospective endorsement rather than forward direction — the Supreme Leader ratifying actions the IRGC has already taken, rather than ordering new ones. If so, the statement reveals a command structure in which the IRGC acts and the Supreme Leader follows, not the reverse.

What could happen next?

Risk
If Mojtaba Khamenei's statements are not genuinely his, any ceasefire agreement concluded under his authority could be immediately contested by IRGC factions citing a different reading of his directives.
Short term · Suggested
Meaning
Governance by proxy text effectively transfers de facto operational authority to IRGC provincial commanders, who will interpret ambiguous directives according to their own strategic preferences.
Immediate · Assessed
Risk
The legitimacy vacuum at the top of Iran's system may attract internal challenges from senior clerics in Qom questioning Mojtaba's credentials and from political factions seeking to exploit his absence.
Medium term · Suggested
Consequence
The unspecified 'other fronts' language provides IRGC commanders with open-ended authorisation to escalate in any theatre, making Iranian action harder to predict or pre-empt diplomatically.
Immediate · Assessed

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar, United States and 2 more

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Pakistan

United Kingdom

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Primary parallel: During the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini governed from exile in Paris via cassette tape and intermediaries for months before taking power. His remote authority held because his clerical legitimacy as a recognised Marja was uncontested and deeply established across Iran's senior clergy.

Counter-parallel: Mojtaba Khamenei is not a recognised Grand Ayatollah — he lacks the decades of public religious scholarship and clerical endorsement that confer Marja status. Proxy governance that worked for Khomeini because his authority was beyond question is structurally fragile when applied by a figure whose authority is itself the contested question.

Why it’s relevant now

Khomeini's remote governance succeeded because the form of his communication did not diminish his legitimacy. Mojtaba's proxy statement inadvertently highlights the legitimacy deficit it was designed to conceal — the form of the statement and its content pull in opposite directions.

Consensus view: The International Crisis Group has consistently analysed Iran's dual-power structure as a source of strategic incoherence during crises: the president negotiates while the IRGC operates, and The Supreme Leader's role is to arbitrate between them — a function that cannot be performed through proxied text.

Counter-view: The Iranian Studies scholarly tradition — represented in pre-war work from researchers at the University of Tehran — argued that IRGC operational autonomy is often overstated in Western analysis. Supreme Leader directives, even indirect ones, carry binding weight within IRGC command culture because institutional loyalty to the position exceeds loyalty to the individual holding it.

Key tension: Whether the IRGC's 31 provincial commanders treat Khamenei's written statement as authoritative direction or as post-hoc legitimisation of decisions they have already made independently.

Sources:Al Jazeera·CBS News·Dawn

Mentions:Mojtaba Khamenei →Ali Khamenei →Assembly of Experts →Strait of Hormuz →National Security Council (Iran) →United Arab Emirates (UAE) →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →Israel →Iran →Tehran →Iran International →

First Reported In

Update #33 · Oil breaks $100; war reaches Iraqi waters

Al Jazeera· 13 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader preceded his first public statement via proxy

Occurred 7 Mar 2026

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IRGC pledges loyalty to Mojtaba Khamenei

IRGC pledge of obedience to Khamenei preceded statement confirming blockade and referencing new fronts

Occurred 7 Mar 2026

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This Event

Mojtaba speaks via proxy, unseen

In Iran's constitutional system, the Supreme Leader's authority rests on the doctrine of velayat-e faqih — personal clerical guardianship. Governing through unverified, proxied text without a single public appearance is without precedent in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. If Mojtaba Khamenei cannot or will not appear, operational command defaults to the IRGC's 31 autonomous provincial commanders, who have already demonstrated the capacity to sustain fire without central direction.

Led to

Pentagon: Mojtaba wounded, disfigured

Hegseth cited Khamenei's absence of voice or video in his only public statement (ID:975) as evidence of disfigurement

Occurred 13 Mar 2026

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Different Perspectives

India (BRICS meeting host, grey-market beneficiary)

New Delhi hosted the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting on 14 May that Araghchi attended under the Minab168 designation, giving India a front-row seat to Iran's diplomatic positioning. India's state refiners have been absorbing discounted Iranian crude through grey-market routing since April; Brent at $109.30 means every barrel sourced outside the formal market generates a structural saving.

Hengaw / Kurdish human rights monitors

Hengaw's daily reports from Iran's Kurdish provinces remain the sole independent cross-check on Iran's judicial activity during the conflict. Two executions across Qom and Karaj Central prisons on 15 May and five Kurdish detentions on 15-16 May indicate the wartime judicial pipeline is operating independently of military tempo.

Pakistan (mediator and bilateral partner)

Islamabad spent its diplomatic capital as the US-Iran MOU carrier to secure LNG passage for two Qatari vessels through a bilateral Pakistan-Iran agreement, spending its mediation credit for direct economic gain. China's public endorsement of Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May is the structural reward.

China and BRICS bloc

Beijing endorsed Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May, one day after the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi. Chinese state banks are processing PGSA yuan toll payments; China has not commented on its vessels' continued Hormuz passage, but benefits structurally from a non-dollar toll system it did not design.

Iraq (bilateral passage partner)

Baghdad negotiated a 2-million-barrel VLCC transit without paying PGSA yuan tolls, offering political alignment in lieu of cash. Iraq's position inside Iran's adjacent bloc makes it the natural first bilateral partner and a template for how Tehran structures passage deals with states that cannot afford Western coalition membership.

Bahrain and Qatar (Gulf signatories)

Both signed the Western coalition paper while hosting US Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM's Al Udeid base, respectively. Qatar occupies the sharpest contradiction: it is on coalition paper while simultaneously receiving LNG passage through the bilateral Iran-Pakistan track, a position Doha has tacitly accepted from both sides.