Israel stated on Monday that Lebanon now launches more daily attacks on Israel than Iran — a reversal from the war's opening days, when Tehran's missile and drone volleys defined the conflict. CENTCOM reported three days ago that Iranian Ballistic missile fire had dropped 90% from Day 1 . Tehran's response was doctrinal: a shift to one-tonne warheads, fewer in number but heavier in destructive yield. The arithmetic consequence is that Iran fires less often while Hezbollah fills the volume with continuous rocket and anti-tank fire from southern Lebanon.
The question is who directs Hezbollah's campaign at this tempo. Dozens of IRGC Quds Force officers fled Beirut in recent days fearing Israeli targeting , and five Quds Force commanders — including the Lebanon Corps intelligence chief and its senior financial officer — were killed in Sunday's Ramada Hotel strike in central Beirut . The IDF killed Hezbollah intelligence chief Hussain Makled earlier in the week . Yet Hezbollah's daily fire rate has increased after those losses. That pattern is consistent with the movement's behaviour during the 2006 war, when its field commanders prosecuted a 34-day campaign with minimal real-time Iranian direction. Hezbollah's command structure has always been designed to function without its patron in the room.
The dual front stretches Israel's defence architecture across two different problems. Arrow-3 and David's Sling engage Iran's long-range ballistic threats; Iron Dome and short-range systems handle Hezbollah's rockets from positions along the border. Israeli ground forces are deployed in five south Lebanese towns — Kfar Kila, Houla, Kfar Shouba, Yaroun, and Khiam — but their presence has not suppressed the fire. Lebanon is now both a secondary front and the primary daily threat, a combination that sits awkwardly against any framing of the war as winding down "very soon."
