Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Iran Conflict 2026
3SEP

GL X prices relief Europe cannot buy

3 min read
16:40UTC

OFAC's General License X reopened Iranian crude for Asian buyers on 22 June and sent Brent toward a three-month low near $73, but EU and UK sanctions bar European refiners from lifting a single barrel of it.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

US sanctions relief Europe cannot legally use widens the gap between flat Brent and European product cracks.

OFAC issued Iran-related General License X (GL X) on Monday 22 June, authorising the production, sale, delivery and shipping of Iranian crude with dollar payments through 21 August 1. Crude desks read it as a global supply event and sold Brent toward a three-month low near $73, extending the slide from $78.96 a week earlier . European refiners cannot lift a single barrel of it.

EU Regulation 833/2014, the sanctions framework that bars European firms from buying Iranian crude, is not overridden by a US general licence, and UK sanctions hold the same line 2. Asian and Indian refiners can take the freed barrels; European firms cannot. ARA and Mediterranean desks face the same distillate shortage they carried last week , now at a lower flat price.

The barrels GL X frees are lawful for an Indian buyer and unlawful for an Italian one. Flat Brent cannot tell the two apart and prices the global barrel down; the ICE Gasoil crack prices the barrel Europe is actually allowed to run, which has not loosened. A desk holding the gasoil crack against flat Brent is positioned for that split to widen.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil sanctions work through two legally separate systems that are not coordinated with each other. The US system is run by OFAC, part of the US Treasury, and binds on US companies and anyone using the US dollar clearing system. The European system is run under EU law and binds on European companies and banks, regardless of what the US allows. On 22 June, OFAC issued General License X allowing Iranian crude to be bought, sold, and shipped. This was part of the ongoing US-Iran diplomatic process {{EVREF:/t/iran-conflict-2026/136/the-paper-says-open-water-says-shut/}}. Asian refineries in China, India, and South Korea, which are not subject to EU law, can now legally purchase Iranian crude at a significant discount to market prices. However, European refineries in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and France are still banned from buying Iranian crude under EU Regulation 833/2014 and UK sanctions. These European rules apply regardless of what the US allows. So when Brent crude fell to $73, that price move was the market pricing in more supply from Iran. But European refiners cannot buy any of it. For them, diesel and heating oil remain exactly as scarce as they were before GL X was issued. The ICE Gasoil future, the European diesel benchmark, stayed elevated relative to the lower Brent price precisely because European buyers are excluded from the supply relief.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

EU Regulation 833/2014 (adopted 31 July 2014, extended by Council Regulation 2022/1271 and successive packages through 2025) prohibits EU persons from purchasing, importing, transporting, or providing services related to crude oil or petroleum products of Iranian origin.

Article 3aa as amended in 2022 explicitly includes crude oil from Iran alongside Russia's crude; the regulation does not provide a carve-in mechanism for US general licences, and Article 8 provides for member-state criminal penalties for violations. Any European refiner, trader, or bank providing trade finance for an Iranian cargo faces potential asset freezes and criminal referral to national competent authorities.

UK sanctions under the Russia (Sanctions)(EU Exit) Regulations 2019 and the Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023, as amended, separately reproduce this prohibition for UK persons in equivalent terms. The structural result of this legal architecture is a market where the same Iranian barrel is simultaneously authorised for Asian buyers transacting through OFAC-jurisdictional channels and prohibited for European buyers regardless of the price differential.

The ICE Gasoil crack against flat Brent will structurally widen as long as this asymmetry persists: European product buyers face the same distillate shortage as before GL X, at a lower flat-price level that has priced in supply they cannot legally access.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The legal access asymmetry between Asian and European buyers for GL X Iranian crude will widen the Brent-Dubai EFS (Exchange of Futures for Swaps) as Iranian barrels price competitively against Gulf crude for Asian buyers but provide no equivalent relief for NWE or Med refiners buying Brent-priced feedstock.

  • Risk

    If the Islamabad framework collapses before 21 August and GL X is revoked, Brent would recover sharply; European refiners would face the same physical shortage at a higher flat price, with no period of relief in between.

First Reported In

Update #11 · Crude longs flushed flat into a loaded week

OFAC· 26 Jun 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
China's foreign ministry
China's foreign ministry
Spokesman Lin Jian rejected Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's 25 August warning that Iranian oil buyers face an "economic D-Day", saying sanctions do not help and that Beijing would safeguard its own rights and interests. China's Iranian crude imports had already halved for unrelated reasons.
Iraq's government and Erbil authorities
Iraq's government and Erbil authorities
Erbil authorities said 10 explosive-laden drones were shot down over the city on 1-2 September with no casualties. Iraq's government condemned the attacks without naming Iran as their source, and neither Washington nor Baghdad confirmed the IRGC's claim to have hit US bases there.
Bahrain Defence Force
Bahrain Defence Force
The General Command said air defences intercepted several Iranian missiles and drones on 1-2 September and called the use of such weapons against civilians and private property a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.
Kuwait's Fire Force and foreign ministry
Kuwait's Fire Force and foreign ministry
KUNA reported a hostile Iranian drone struck a residential complex in Kuwait City on 2 September; Fire Force spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Al-Gharib said losses were confined to property. Kuwait's foreign ministry called the attack a clear breach of its sovereignty.
Jordan's Armed Forces
Jordan's Armed Forces
Petra carried a statement that air defences intercepted eight missiles violating Jordanian airspace early on 31 August and 10 of 13 fired on 1 September. The statement named no target and did not address the IRGC's claim to have struck Camp Titin and killed US personnel.
CENTCOM
CENTCOM
CENTCOM's 1 September target list named IRGC air defence, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites in Iran but no tanker, after Axios reported anonymous officials describing a Trump-approved "tanker for tanker" drone policy. A CENTCOM spokesman declined to confirm the policy and referred questions to policymakers.