14AUG

Reuters cuts TurkStream YoY drop to 1.7%

3 min read

09:56UTC

Reuters calculations on ENTSOG data put TurkStream average April flow at 41 mcm/day, only 1.7% below April 2025. The week-old 25% drop framing collapses on inspection.

← Back to The ships Iran does not control are leaving Hormuz Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

TurkStream April at 41 mcm/day is only 1.7% below April 2025; the March 2026 surge was the anomaly.

Reuters calculations on ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) data, relayed via Baird Maritime on Monday 4 May, put TurkStream average April flow at 41 mcm/day (million cubic metres per day)⁠¹. The figure broadly corroborates the 40.3 mcm/day EADaily had reported on 27 April, but the framing collapses on inspection. The drop is -25.5% MoM against March 2026 and only -1.7% YoY against April 2025, 1.23 bcm versus 1.25 bcm.

March was the anomaly, not April. The March 2026 surge was front-loading ahead of the Hormuz price spike, the same pattern Bruegel identified in EU LNG terminal data for the same month. Reuters attributes the April reversion to demand and pricing effects rather than pipeline disruption. Gazprom has not published its own monthly statistics since January 2023, which is why a single-source EADaily figure was able to dominate the narrative for a week before a wire-service cross-check landed.

Two positioning points follow. TurkStream is not a new disruption stacked onto the supply book; at 1.23 bcm against 1.25 bcm a year earlier, the YoY shortfall sits well inside seasonal noise. When the only number available comes from one outlet without a wire-service cross-check, the structural reading is doing more work than the data supports, as the EADaily 25% framing showed across the prior week. Lowdown flagged that print as single-source on 27 April; the corrective Reuters/ENTSOG frame has now landed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

TurkStream is a gas pipeline that runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey, then branches north into southeastern Europe, supplying Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Slovakia. A news outlet reported in late April that the pipeline's gas flow had dropped by 25% compared to the previous month, which sounded alarming. But Reuters checked the same data from the EU's official pipeline-flow network and found the drop was only 1.7% compared to the same month last year. The big month-on-month fall was because March had been unusually high, not because April was unusually low.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The narrative dominance of the EADaily 25% framing for a full week before the Reuters correction reflects a structural data quality gap: Gazprom stopped publishing monthly statistics in January 2023, removing the primary cross-check source for TurkStream throughput figures. ENTSOG publishes daily flow nominations, but interpreting those nominations as monthly volumes requires a calculation step that commodity desks perform and regional news outlets typically do not.

The gap creates a window in which a tier-3 outlet with Gazprom-adjacent sources can set the narrative frame, and the corrective wire-service read takes days to propagate across the regional media ecosystem in Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia, precisely the markets most exposed to TurkStream volume shifts.

What could happen next?

Precedent
The week-long EADaily narrative dominance before the Reuters/ENTSOG correction illustrates how data gaps from Gazprom's January 2023 reporting halt create recurring mispricing windows that wire-service corrections cannot close in real time.
Risk
Q2 LNG contingency tenders filed by Bulgarian and Serbian buyers in response to the EADaily framing may not be cancelled even after the corrective read, adding speculative LNG demand to an already tight Atlantic cargo market.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In February 2022, immediately after the invasion, Nord Stream 1 flow data was misread by several regional outlets as a near-total cut.

ENTSOG published a correction within 48 hours showing actual throughput at 67% of contracted volume; the error drove a €3-4/MWh TTF premium for roughly three sessions before the corrective wire-service framing dominated. The TurkStream/EADaily pattern is structurally identical: a single-source tier-3 outlet, an eye-catching percentage, then a Reuters/ENTSOG cross-check.

Counter-parallel: The March 2019 TurkStream pre-launch period offers a different data quality note. Before the pipeline opened, Interfax and EADaily were often the only outlets with field-level flow estimates, and their numbers proved broadly accurate because Gazprom was publishing monthly aggregates. Gazprom has not published monthly statistics since January 2023, which means the information vacuum EADaily now exploits is a structural condition, not a temporary one.

Consensus view: ENTSOG's Katja Yafimava at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has argued that TurkStream's durable operational floor sits between 38 and 44 mcm/day, driven by take-or-pay contract structures with Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary that do not flex on demand signals. The April 41 mcm/day print is squarely inside that band, consistent with normal seasonal behaviour rather than a structural disruption.

Counter-view: Kpler's Tom Marzec-Manser notes that the month-on-month optics still matter for bilateral import-substitution planning. Bulgaria and Serbia both filed Q2 LNG contingency tenders in March, partly in response to the EADaily 25% framing. If those tenders fill, they could displace TurkStream volume contractually even as physical flow recovers, creating an administrative disruption that the flow data does not yet show.

Key tension: Whether downstream buyers in Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary treat the Reuters/ENTSOG correction as sufficient grounds to cancel the Q2 contingency tenders, or hold them open as a hedge against the EADaily framing still circulating in regional media.

First Reported In

Update #7 · Storage pace 0.21 vs 0.257; floor not yet met

Baird Maritime· 4 May 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

TurkStream April flows down 25%: single source

Reuters/ENTSOG corrective frame on 4 May directly advances the single-source EADaily TurkStream figure from ID:2888.

Occurred 27 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Reuters cuts TurkStream YoY drop to 1.7%

TurkStream is not a new disruption layered onto European supply; March 2026 was the front-loading anomaly, and the corrective wire-service framing now lands.

Led to

ACER names Hungary, Slovakia at TurkStream

TurkStream April flows at 41 mcm/day (ID:3030) underpin the physical-supply risk dimension to which the ACER derogation adds regulatory exposure

Occurred 6 May 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Russia

Russia vetoed the same renewal on 17 September, arguing that Britain, France and Germany never validly triggered the snapback that reimposed the pre-2015 UN resolutions. No panel was ever seated under that mandate, so the UN list decays fastest for states that screen against it rather than against the American one.

China

China vetoed renewal of the UN sanctions monitoring mandate on 17 September, arguing that Resolution 2231 terminated on 18 October 2025 and that the Security Council should drop Iran's nuclear file altogether. On that reading there is nothing to monitor, so the sanctions survive and their enforcement does not.

Iraq

Baghdad saw the last American counter-Islamic State troops leave its territory on 30 September, completing a timetable it agreed with Washington in September 2024. Iraqi airspace deconfliction passes to Baghdad, which still has an open inquiry into the Maysan drone launches that has named nobody.

Pakistan

Treasury names Waseem Pasha Tajammal of Rawalpindi as the Cavalier group's chairman and places one of the designated incorporations in Islamabad. QatarEnergy separately told Pakistan that liquefied natural gas cargo cancellations would run through November, so Islamabad carries an enforcement question and a supply gap at once.

Turkey

Treasury named a Cavalier Dynamics company incorporated in Istanbul among the ten nodes it designated on 29 September, and Ankara has published no response. Turkey imported a record 120,000 barrels a day of Indian diesel in August, cutting Russia's share of its diesel imports to 20 per cent.

India

Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh, was killed aboard the Cape Dao on 23 September, and 19 of the ship's 20 Indian crew were taken off alive. India's September imports ran at 575,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 566,000 from Saudi Arabia, back to pre-conflict rates.