12AUG

ISW reads Iran's thanks as cover

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14:52UTC

ISW assessed that the IRGC's public thanks to 'the Jordanian people' for targeting intelligence is a cover story, meant to counter reporting that Russia and China are helping Iran aim at Americans.

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ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

ISW calls Iran's thanks to Jordanians a cover story, and Amman has neither confirmed nor denied it.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and its Critical Threats Project assessed on Monday 20 July that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued its public thanks to "the Jordanian people" as a likely cover narrative ¹. The thanks, for intelligence said to have aided Iranian strikes on Jordan, accompanied the IRGC's claim of a 21st-wave strike on the Azraq area and Aqaba Airport . ISW reads it as an attempt to counter reporting that Russia and China are helping Iran target American assets in the region.

Amman has answered none of it. Jordan's government has neither confirmed nor denied the claim, and it comes after a week in which Jordanian officials said no threats existed at Aqaba hours before Iranian missiles landed in the area .

The only public pushback came from an academic. Ronen Yitzhak of the Moshe Dayan Center told The Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic has no real support base in Jordan ².

ISW's reading is an assessment rather than evidence, and it comes from an institution with a declared view of Iranian information operations. The same report cites senior Iranian officials privately worried that the renewed conflict is deepening Iran's economic crisis and threatening internal security ³. ISW does not name those officials, and nothing outside the report corroborates them.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a Washington think tank that tracks the conflict closely and publishes near-daily assessments. Its Critical Threats Project focuses specifically on Iran. When ISW says it "assesses" something, that means it is offering an informed judgement based on its own analysis and sourcing, not reporting a confirmed fact. Here, Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) publicly thanked "the Jordanian people" for intelligence that helped its recent strikes. ISW thinks this may be a cover story, a way to deflect attention from separate claims that Russia and China are quietly helping Iran target American assets. Jordan has said neither yes nor no. None of this is confirmed; it is one think tank's reading of why Iran chose those specific words.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

ISW and its Critical Threats Project assessed, in a 20 July Iran Update Evening Special Report, that the IRGC's public thanks to "the Jordanian people" for intelligence is likely intended to counter separate reporting that Russia and China are helping Iran target US assets in the region. This is ISW's interpretation of why the IRGC chose that specific phrasing, not a confirmed fact about Russian or Chinese involvement. Amman has neither confirmed nor denied the IRGC's underlying claim.

ISW's report also cites unnamed senior Iranian officials as privately concerned the renewed conflict is deepening Iran's economic crisis and threatening internal security. ISW does not name these officials, and nothing outside its own report corroborates them; the claim should be read as ISW's sourcing, not as independently established fact.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War·Jerusalem Post

Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Critical Threats →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →Jordan →Russia →China →Iran →Aqaba →Jerusalem Post →Washington →Tehran →Aqaba Airport →Amman →Iranian Revolution →Azraq airbase →

First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

Institute for the Study of War· 22 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Amman denied a threat, then it landed

Jordan's prior denial of any Aqaba threat before missiles hit frames its silence on the IRGC's public thanks.

Occurred 19 Jul 2026

Read story →

IRGC thanks Jordanians for helping it aim

The IRGC's claimed Nasr-2 strike on Aqaba on 20 July is the action the disputed Jordanian-intelligence claim is meant to explain.

Occurred 19 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

ISW reads Iran's thanks as cover

A public thank-you to a neighbour's population costs Tehran nothing to issue and puts Amman in a position it cannot comfortably answer.

Different Perspectives

Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser

Gargash warned the region cannot stay trapped between "neither war nor peace", naming the stalemate itself as unsustainable for a Gulf state hosting US forces and absorbing the shipping-risk cost without being party to either the strike decisions or the corridor talks.

Shipping and insurance underwriters

War-risk premiums are still set against an active blockade and a fatal Bab el-Mandeb attack with an unresolved vessel identity. A disabling strike and a diplomatic "advanced" claim pulling in opposite directions gives underwriters no single signal to reprice cover against.

Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)

Pakistan's defence minister said matters are "shaping up in favor of peace" on Hormuz and a Qatari spokesperson called the Iran-Oman reopening talks advanced. Both are publicly ahead of Tehran's own security council, which has just disowned the deal's significance.

United States Central Command / President Trump

CENTCOM confirmed a helicopter strike disabled a container ship that tried to evade the blockade, and Trump said the US "totally controls" the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is treating evasion of the blockade as grounds for disabling fire rather than the redirection tactic CENTCOM used through July.

Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council

Rezaei told China's ambassador Hormuz reopens only when the US ends the war and unblocks Iran's funds, and that the Oman transit deal "will have no impact" on that decision. He is drawing a hard line between the technical corridor track and the political settlement his council controls.

Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities

SABA reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen as tanker use of Bab el-Mandeb fell. The fighting adds civilian and supply risks to a route ships use when Hormuz is unsafe.