25JUL

Ukraine's strikes move to the Azov

2 min read

11:58UTC

Ukraine's drones shifted from Russian refineries to fuel tankers in the Sea of Azov, cutting vessel traffic there by a possible 55% between 30 June and 11 July.

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Key takeaway

Ukraine's strike campaign moved to Sea of Azov fuel tankers, cutting traffic there by a possible 55%.

Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shifted in the first fortnight of July from static refineries to the seaborne tankers carrying fuel across the Sea of Azov, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported ¹. Automatic identification system tracking from Starboard Maritime Intelligence, a commercial firm that monitors ship movements, recorded a possible 55% drop in Azov traffic between 30 June and 11 July ².

Through June the campaign had reached deep inside Russia: the Kapotnya refinery near Moscow , the Tyumen plant two thousand kilometres from the border in Siberia , and airbase hangars at Saky on 1 July . Targeting the tankers changes the class of target from fixed installations to moving cargo, and it reaches the fuel at the point it leaves the country.

The tanker campaign works through logistics rather than firepower. Strike the vessels and the fuel cannot sail, so it backs up at the terminals the domestic market also draws on, pushing Russian pump prices higher ³. The diesel export ban exists in part to hold that backup inside Russia's borders.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil refineries for months. Now it has widened the campaign to hit the ships that carry Russian fuel across the Sea of Azov, the inland sea between the two countries. A commercial tracking firm called Starboard Maritime Intelligence, which follows ship movements by radio signal, recorded roughly half as many vessels crossing the Azov between 30 June and 11 July as before. This matters because even fuel that survives the refinery still has to reach a buyer by ship. Targeting the tankers themselves, alongside the plants that make the fuel, closes off one more route Russia has been using to keep exports moving.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Refineries are fixed, defended, and can be patched or partially restarted; ocean-going tankers moving through the Sea of Azov's narrow approaches have far less air-defence cover and cannot be dispersed once under way, which makes them a softer target once Ukraine's strike range and targeting data allow it.

The economic incentive compounds this: the fuel crunch behind Russia's own diesel export ban tightens what refined product is even available to ship, so every remaining cargo becomes a higher-value target for the strike campaign to interdict.

Escalation

Direction: expanding target set from land-based refineries to seaborne logistics, a widening rather than a de-escalation of the strike campaign. Evidence: the 55% AIS traffic decline follows earlier June refinery strikes on Kapotnya and Tyumen, suggesting a deliberate broadening rather than a one-off incident.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Vessel operators may increasingly go dark on AIS transponders to avoid becoming targets, which would make future traffic-decline figures harder to interpret as damage versus evasion.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: Ukraine's strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal at Novorossiysk and on Ust-Luga and Primorsk in the Baltic both followed the same structural logic as the Azov shift: once a set of fixed targets is struck repeatedly, the campaign moves to the loading and transit infrastructure those targets feed into.

Counter-parallel: Those earlier terminal strikes hit stationary port infrastructure that could be repaired on a known timeline. Tankers underway in open water are a moving target set with no fixed repair clock, so the Azov shift has no clean precedent for how quickly Russia can restore throughput once traffic patterns are broken.

Consensus view: RUSI's published work on the shadow fleet has long argued that once fixed refineries and terminals harden or exhaust as targets, pressure shifts naturally onto the tankers themselves, since insurance, crewing and routing cannot be replaced as quickly as a damaged storage tank. Starboard Maritime Intelligence's AIS data, a possible 55% drop in Azov traffic between 30 June and 11 July, fits that pattern.

Counter-view: Russia's Ministry of Defence maintains a standing practice of denying or minimising strike damage in near-real time, and a traffic decline recorded via AIS transponder data can reflect vessels going dark or rerouting rather than tankers sunk or destroyed.

Key tension: Whether the 55% figure represents an actual reduction in fuel movement, or masking, where ships simply switch off tracking to avoid becoming targets while continuing to sail.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project

Mentions:Ukraine →Sea of Azov →Russia →Ust-Luga →Caspian Pipeline Consortium →Novorossiysk →Primorsk →Kapotnya refinery →Institute for the Study of War →Moscow →RUSI →Starboard Maritime Intelligence →

First Reported In

Update #23 · Moscow rations diesel as US cover lapses

Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project· 13 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Drone strike shuts Kapotnya near Moscow

The June Kapotnya refinery strike was an early step in the campaign that escalated to tanker strikes in the Sea of Azov.

Occurred 18 Jun 2026

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Ukraine hits Siberia, 2,000 km deep

The June Tyumen refinery strike was an early step in the campaign that escalated to tanker strikes in the Sea of Azov.

Occurred 20 Jun 2026

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Saky hangars and Penza plant hit

The 1 July Saky airbase strike preceded the campaign's shift to seaborne fuel tankers in the Sea of Azov.

Occurred 1 Jul 2026

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Ukraine says it hit 159 tankers

The 159-vessel tally extends the shift to Sea of Azov and shadow-fleet tanker strikes.

Occurred 15 Jul 2026

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This Event

Ukraine's strikes move to the Azov

Striking tankers rather than refineries lets Ukraine choke Russian fuel logistics at a moving chokepoint the domestic market depends on.

Led to

Moscow bans its own diesel exports

Ukraine's tanker-strike campaign in the Sea of Azov created the fuel-supply pressure the diesel export ban was issued to contain.

Occurred 8 Jul 2026

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Sea drones push into the Black Sea

The Black Sea expansion follows directly from the Azov chokepoint tactic that had cut tracked traffic by 55% eleven days earlier.

Occurred 15 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Oil traders

Sent Brent down 2.29 per cent to $98.38 a barrel on reports that mediation was reviving, moving the price on CENTCOM's quiet night rather than on Trump's same-day promise of a bigger operation with no deadline attached.

Iran

An Iranian official called the same mediation account completely misleading, denying it received any US proposal via Baghdad on the same day Iraq denied delivering one, leaving neither denial able to settle what actually passed between the two capitals.

Iraq

Called groundless the New York Times account that its prime minister carried a US ceasefire proposal to Tehran, a denial that also protects Baghdad's effort to avoid becoming a party to a war fought by aircraft it does not control.

OHCHR

Recorded 17 civilian seafarer deaths since the war began, a population neither the Pentagon nor Iran's Health Ministry counts in its own tally, and called for urgent action on 6,000 crew stranded across roughly 400 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Houthis

Enforced the blockade on Saudi-linked shipping it declared on 20 July by hitting the NCC Masa and then an Aramco facility at Jazan, moving from radio warnings to strikes on land after four days without a confirmed hit.

Saudi Arabia

Struck Houthi military sites near Hodeidah the same day the NCC Masa was hit, while its coalition spokesman insisted Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Salif all remain open to navigation. The distinction protects the ports Yemen's population depends on for food and fuel even while punishing the group behind the tanker strike.