The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week to 22 May showed US distillate stocks at 100.8mb, down 2.1mb on the week and roughly 11% below the five-year average, the tightest distillate balance since the 2022 post-Ukraine shock 1. The four-week distillate demand figure is down 2.1% year-on-year, so the draw is supply-side, not a demand surge papering over scarcity.
Refiners answered with capital. US utilisation jumped to 94.5% from 90.8% the prior week, crude inputs rose 652kbd to 16,430kbd, and crude stocks drew 3.3mb to 441.7mb 2. Plants running that hard into a falling Brent are chasing a crack margin the selloff has not reached, which is the behaviour you would expect if the product shortage is real rather than a positioning artefact.
The print sits under the 26 May crack call as its evidence leg, not a fresh thesis. The gasoil crack held near $54 through the full $14 Brent decline because the barrels were genuinely short, and these inventories say it deepened while the screen sold off. The counter runs through turnaround season: runs at 94.5% rebuild product stocks within weeks if the ceasefire holds and Gulf barrels flow freely, which would revert the crack toward its pre-war $35 rather than holding a new floor.
