A 21 Kutatokozpont survey published 1 April showed the opposition Tisza party leading Fidesz by 19 points among decided voters: 56% to 37%1. The PolitPro aggregate is narrower: Tisza 47.8%, Fidesz/KDNP 40.5%. Government-affiliated Nezopont shows Fidesz ahead at 46% to 40%, the largest divergence between independent and aligned pollsters this election cycle.
The outcome determines three immediate policy questions. First: Hungary's continued blockade of the €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine, which Orban nominally unblocked in March before re-blocking at the 19 March summit. Second: access to the €16.2 billion SAFE rearmament programme, frozen by the European Commission on 25 March. Third: the Druzhba pipeline dispute, where Hungary halted reverse gas exports to Ukraine.
Tisza leader Peter Magyar has committed to unlocking EU funds and anchoring Hungary in the EU and NATO. A Tisza government would remove the single-member veto that has forced the bloc to improvise enforcement around Budapest's blocking position. Hungary's electoral system, however, favours incumbents through gerrymandered constituency boundaries and state media dominance. The election is 11 days away.
