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Iran Conflict 2026
3JUN

Thousands march in Tehran under blackout

2 min read
09:04UTC

Thousands rallied in Tehran chanting 'no compromise, no surrender' hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an apology his own political system then repudiated.

ConflictDeveloping

Thousands marched through Tehran on Friday waving Iranian flags and images of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, chanting 'We'll fight, we'll die, we won't accept humiliation' and 'No compromise, no surrender, destruction of Israel.' The demonstrations occurred hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an address whose conciliatory tone was contradicted within hours when IRGC forces struck Dubai, Saudi oil facilities, and Bahrain .

Whether the marches were spontaneous or IRGC-organised is impossible to verify. Iran's internet blackout, now in its ninth consecutive day, has severed the independent reporting channels — social media, encrypted messaging, citizen journalism — that made verification possible during the January 2026 protests . Both readings produce the same operational conclusion. If spontaneous, the war has genuinely mobilised popular sentiment against any form of capitulation. If organised, the IRGC is manufacturing the public mandate it needs to override a president who has twice attempted de-escalation — first with the apology to Gulf States, then by announcing that forces 'should not attack neighbouring countries' — and been ignored both times.

The marchers' slogans track precisely with the hardliner statements that followed Pezeshkian's address. Conservative media activist Meisam Nili declared 'any ceasefire is treason.' Qom lawmaker Mohammad Manan Raeisi called the president's remarks 'humiliating.' The alignment between street chants and elite rhetoric — whether coordinated or coincidental — leaves Pezeshkian isolated between Trump's unconditional surrender demand, which he explicitly rejected , and a domestic political and military establishment that treats his attempt to de-escalate with neighbours as betrayal.

For foreign ministries assessing Iran's internal dynamics, the picture is a system in which the elected president lacks the authority to deliver on any diplomatic commitment he might make. Pezeshkian can neither accept Washington's terms nor persuade his own security apparatus to honour the more modest restraint he has publicly promised. The January crackdown , for which Pezeshkian later apologised , demonstrated that Iran's security forces operate independently of presidential authority in domestic matters. The current war is demonstrating the same independence in external affairs.

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Update #27 · Israel kills 41 on failed 1986 airman raid

TRT World· 7 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Thousands march in Tehran under blackout
The demonstrations — whether spontaneous or IRGC-organised — show the visible Iranian public face of the war is not ready for de-escalation, narrowing the political space for any diplomatic off-ramp Pezeshkian might attempt.
Different Perspectives
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to near $87.33 on 80 per cent deal-probability pricing, but Lloyd's has not de-listed Hormuz from its war-risk register and shipping diversions continue at 139 vessels. Insurance markets are lagging futures: physical risk remains while financial markets have spent the good news before the paper exists.
India
India
Modi is expected to raise the deaths of three Indian sailors in the 11 June CENTCOM strike on the MT Settebello with Trump at G7 sidelines, the first non-party leader to put the blockade's human cost into a formal bilateral. New Delhi is also a major Iranian oil buyer whose import volumes the sanctions-relief terms will govern.
Israel (Netanyahu)
Israel (Netanyahu)
Netanyahu stated Israel is not party to the deal on 12 June; Defence Minister Katz ruled out the Lebanon withdrawal Iran's draft demands, inserting a third blocker the US-Iran negotiating channel cannot resolve. Israel's position tethers Hormuz reopening to a Lebanon settlement Washington has not brokered.
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Sharif declared a final agreed text on 12 June before either principal confirmed it, running two Tehran visits in under a week without securing a written IRGC or Khamenei response. Islamabad's incentive to claim a diplomatic win outpaces its standing to deliver either capital's signature.
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Araghchi declared digital signing within days while setting dilute-in-Iran as a non-negotiable red line on the 440.9 kg HEU stockpile, a standing Tehran position he cannot override without authorisation from Khamenei, reachable only by courier. The FM track is sprinting to close before the IRGC reasserts control.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Vance called the deal still TBD on 12 June while CENTCOM downed Iranian drones over Hormuz for a second consecutive night and the White House register stayed blank. Washington holds the ship-out position on HEU and has not signed an Iran instrument in over 100 days of conflict.