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Iran Conflict 2026
25MAY

Trump declares Iran deal, signs nothing

4 min read
13:55UTC

Trump posted on Saturday 23 May that the Iran war deal was 'largely negotiated' and Hormuz 'will be opened'; the only paper the White House signed all weekend was a Memorial Day proclamation.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump declared the war nearly settled, yet signed no Iran instrument and published no text.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday 23 May that a deal to end the Iran war had been "largely negotiated" between the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran and other listed countries, adding that the strait of Hormuz "will be opened" 1. the strait is the 33-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes; Iran's blockade of it has driven this war since late February. It is the most consequential thing Trump has said about Iran in 86 days of fighting. He signed nothing.

The only presidential instrument the White House published across the 22 to 24 May window was a Memorial Day proclamation 2. No Iran order, no sanctions action, no Hormuz text. The verbal track that has carried this war since 28 February reached its loudest moment on a weekend that produced zero signed Iran paper , extending the streak that ran unbroken through the prior week's two non-Iran financial orders .

On Sunday 24 May, Axios reported the shape of what had been agreed 3. It is a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), extendable by consent, not a treaty. During those 60 days Hormuz reopens toll-free, Iran clears its mines, the US lifts the naval blockade and issues waivers letting Tehran sell oil, while US forces stay in the region and withdraw only if a final deal follows. The draft rests on Iran's 14-point document and was approved on the Iranian side by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and on the US side by JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner 4. Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, repeated the American conditions: no weapon, Hormuz open without tolls, uranium handed over 5.

The MOU text has not been published. The sequence front-loads the reversible concessions, blockade lift and oil waivers, and defers the one irreversible commitment, the uranium, to a later negotiation. That ordering lets Tehran collect sanctions and shipping relief across the 60 days while never binding itself to surrender the stockpile.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

On Saturday 23 May, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social saying a deal to end the Iran war had been 'largely negotiated'. The next day, the news outlet Axios reported the shape of that deal: a 60-day temporary agreement (called a memorandum of understanding, or MOU) under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz (the critical sea passage through which about 20% of the world's oil flows), clear its naval mines from the waterway, and negotiate a pause on its nuclear programme. In exchange, the US would lift its naval blockade and issue waivers on some oil sanctions. The agreement would be approved on Iran's side by the Speaker of Iran's parliament, and on the US side by Vice President JD Vance and two presidential advisers. The catch: none of this has been formally signed. Trump made similar verbal deal announcements at least four times before this one, and Iran denied or contradicted each of them within hours. The MOU text was not published as of Sunday 24 May, leaving it as a reported verbal agreement rather than a binding document.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Trump's preference for verbal deal-making over signed instruments is a structural feature of his administration, not a tactical choice. The White House presidential-actions index recorded zero signed Iran instruments across 80 days of war before this declaration.

Truth Social posts function as policy statements in this administration because the executive can claim they represent presidential intent without triggering congressional notification requirements that a formal executive order or treaty would impose.

The Iranian side's use of Ghalibaf rather than Pezeshkian or Araghchi reflects a parallel constraint: the Majlis and IRGC institutional bloc must be included in any deal architecture, or hardliners can torpedo implementation. Ghalibaf bridges that bloc. But his approval is not the same as Khamenei's, and the Supreme Leader's uranium-stay directive three days earlier sits in direct tension with the MOU's enrichment-suspension commitment.

Escalation

Marginally de-escalatory on the military track but no change on the nuclear track. The MOU framework, if it holds, pauses kinetic activity and begins a Hormuz reopening. But Khamenei's uranium directive three days earlier means the nuclear gap has widened since the deal's reported terms were agreed. The deal declaration itself creates a new risk: if negotiations fail publicly, the reversion to conflict may be sharper than if no deal had been announced.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A failed public deal announcement carries greater escalation risk than no announcement, because domestic audiences on both sides will have raised expectations to manage.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Opportunity

    If the 60-day MOU holds through formal signing, it creates the first institutional anchor for a permanent settlement and removes the immediate military pressure on Hormuz.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    Ghalibaf's parliamentary approval of an MOU, if accepted by all parties, establishes that Iran's Majlis can bind the executive on foreign policy — a constitutional precedent with long-term implications for Iranian governance.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #106 · Trump says deal; OFAC says nothing

NBC News· 24 May 2026
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Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.
Gulf Arab producers
Gulf Arab producers
Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.
Pakistan
Pakistan
With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.
China
China
Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.
United States
United States
Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.