24MAY

Brent touches $100 on expiry, closes at $97.91

3 min read

14:49UTC

Lowdown Wire

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Key takeaway

Brent closed 45 per cent above the pre-war baseline after a 21 April round trip through the $100 handle.

Brent Crude briefly crossed $100 per barrel on expiry morning on 21 April before retreating to $97.91 by close after Trump's extension post landed ¹. The close sits 45 per cent above the $67.41 pre-war baseline. Goldman Sachs's $120 Q3 severe scenario remains the operative forecast frame across sell-side desks.

Monday's 7 per cent surge to $96.88 on early extension hope gave Tuesday's market the exit-trigger test, and the trigger was identified as unreachable faster than the futures curve could reprice. The four-dollar round-trip through the $100 handle tracked the moment the market parsed the Truth Social text: blockade continues, unified-proposal condition unmet, tanker risk at the Hormuz gate unchanged. Dated Brent's refusal to settle below $96 across five sessions now is what a blockade-continues price looks like once traders stop pricing a near-term diplomatic resolution.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil is priced in US dollars per barrel on global markets. Before Iran's conflict with the US began, a barrel of Brent crude (the international benchmark) cost $67.41. On 21 April it briefly crossed $100 before settling at $97.91 , a 45% increase. The jump to $100 and rapid retreat happened because markets were testing whether Trump's social media post meant the war was genuinely winding down. When traders read the post carefully and saw the blockade was still in place, the price pulled back. But it did not fall far, because the underlying blockade risk had not changed. Higher oil prices feed through to petrol and diesel costs within weeks, and also raise the price of goods that are transported or manufactured using energy.

What could happen next?

Risk
Goldman Sachs's $120 Q3 severe scenario remains live if OFAC designations follow the GL-U lapse and target specific Chinese buyers, which would remove China's demand cushion and drive a supply withdrawal.
Consequence
Brent settling above $96 for five consecutive sessions shifts institutional hedging benchmarks, locking fuel cost inflation into airline, shipping, and manufacturing forward contracts for Q3.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Israel

Israel

Primary parallel: During the 1990 Gulf War oil price spike, Brent crossed $40 intraday in October 1990 and retreated within hours when the market parsed the first credible diplomatic statement. The 2026 round-trip through $100 mirrors that mechanics: expirations combined with a forcing moment, one credible-seeming text (the Truth Social post), and a price collapse once traders identified the text as incomplete.

Counter-parallel: The 2019 Saudi Aramco Abqaiq attack sent Brent up 15% intraday and the price recovered fully within two weeks as spare capacity from Saudi and US sources absorbed the supply loss. The 2026 situation differs: there is no spare capacity large enough to replace Hormuz volume , so the price floor is structurally higher and a comparable diplomatic text would produce a smaller percentage drop from a higher base.

The $97.91 Brent close represents a 45% premium over the $67.41 pre-war baseline, sustained across a second consecutive expiry cycle. Goldman Sachs's $120 Q3 severe scenario , originally conditioned on a ceasefire failure , now functions as the operative forecast frame even during a ceasefire, because the blockade's continuation has decoupled the price from the ceasefire/war distinction.

The transmission channels: tanker war-risk insurance rates have increased 800-1200% above pre-war baselines for Hormuz transits; P&I clubs have imposed voyage-specific surcharges; the futures curve is inverted in the front months (backwardation), reflecting physical scarcity rather than demand-side pressure. Each of these mechanisms is slow to unwind even after a ceasefire is formalised, which is why Wood Mackenzie's Hittle assessed a $10-15 structural residual even in a full-reopening scenario.

Consensus view: Goldman Sachs commodity chief Daan Struyven and Wood Mackenzie's Ann-Louise Hittle both read the $97.91 close as a 'blockade-continues' price rather than a ceasefire price: the four-dollar round-trip through $100 on expiry morning and the fast retreat tracked exactly how quickly traders parsed the Truth Social text , blockade unchanged, unified-proposal trigger unmet, kinetic risk at Hormuz gate unresolved .

Counter-view: Vanda Insights' Vandana Hari argues that Dated Brent's refusal to settle below $96 across five sessions reflects supply-disruption pricing combined with a structural insurance premium now baked into tanker finance globally , so even a full Hormuz reopening tomorrow would leave a $10-15 residual premium in place until P&I coverage normalises.

Key tension: Whether the $97.91 price reflects a reversible geopolitical risk premium that a signed ceasefire could deflate, or whether the war has permanently re-rated the cost of Hormuz tanker insurance in a way that will outlast the blockade itself.

Sources:Windward

Mentions:Goldman Sachs →Saudi Aramco →Wood Mackenzie →Ann-Louise Hittle →Vandana Hari →Vanda Insights →Daan Struyven →Prima →Iran →Truth Social →Gulf War →Brent Crude →Donald Trump →Saudi Arabia →

First Reported In

Update #76 · Trump posts an exit Iran can't reach

Windward· 22 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent touches $100 on expiry, closes at $97.91

Market pricing reads the extension as marginal de-escalation inside a continuing blockade, not as a ceasefire price; Goldman's severe scenario remains the operative frame.

Led to

Brent closes at $105.73, dark activity rises

Brent $105.73 close extends the post-extension recovery from $97.91 close after the ceasefire-relief dip

Occurred 24 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Civilians and prisoners inside Iran

Mojtaba Kian was hanged in under 50 days from arrest, the fastest wartime espionage case in Hengaw's record, as Trump announced a peace deal. Amnesty places Iran's 2026 execution count above 200 at its fastest pace in 44 years; the diplomatic track has not altered the internal enforcement tempo.

China

Beijing accepted a Pakistani civilian briefing mission on the same day OFAC's GL V expired, keeping itself inside the deal architecture without being a named signatory. How Chinese banks respond to Monday's Hengli dollar-clearing decision is the first real-world test of whether the verbal MOU carries any institutional weight.

Pakistan

Islamabad split its highest-level delegation: army chief Munir to Tehran on the security track, Prime Minister Sharif and Foreign Minister Dar to Beijing before Monday's GL V-driven bank compliance decision. The architecture routes the deal's hardest problem, IRGC buy-in, through the general-officer channel that has extracted every wartime concession.

Israeli government

An unnamed Israeli official told the Times of Israel that Trump privately told Netanyahu the deal will dismantle Iran's nuclear programme and remove all its uranium, terms incompatible with what Tehran and a Reuters source describe. If Netanyahu believes he was promised full dismantlement and the deal delivers less, Israel holds a sabotage veto before any signature.

Iranian Foreign Ministry

Spokesman Esmail Baghaei told state agency IRNA that nuclear issues are 'not in the current negotiations text' and the sequencing is: end the war first, then negotiate nuclear over two months. Baghaei's formulation preserves Khamenei's 21 May uranium-stay directive while letting the civilian diplomacy track continue.

Donald Trump / White House

Trump declared the Iran deal 'largely negotiated' on 23 May via Truth Social and signed nothing; the White House's only paper was a Memorial Day proclamation. The verbal-track method converts maximum political signalling into minimum legal exposure: no congressional notification, no Senate treaty ratification, no instrument for Iran to formally reject.