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Iran Conflict 2026
21MAY

Thousands march in Tehran under blackout

2 min read
09:55UTC

Thousands rallied in Tehran chanting 'no compromise, no surrender' hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an apology his own political system then repudiated.

ConflictDeveloping

Thousands marched through Tehran on Friday waving Iranian flags and images of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, chanting 'We'll fight, we'll die, we won't accept humiliation' and 'No compromise, no surrender, destruction of Israel.' The demonstrations occurred hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an address whose conciliatory tone was contradicted within hours when IRGC forces struck Dubai, Saudi oil facilities, and Bahrain .

Whether the marches were spontaneous or IRGC-organised is impossible to verify. Iran's internet blackout, now in its ninth consecutive day, has severed the independent reporting channels — social media, encrypted messaging, citizen journalism — that made verification possible during the January 2026 protests . Both readings produce the same operational conclusion. If spontaneous, the war has genuinely mobilised popular sentiment against any form of capitulation. If organised, the IRGC is manufacturing the public mandate it needs to override a president who has twice attempted de-escalation — first with the apology to Gulf States, then by announcing that forces 'should not attack neighbouring countries' — and been ignored both times.

The marchers' slogans track precisely with the hardliner statements that followed Pezeshkian's address. Conservative media activist Meisam Nili declared 'any ceasefire is treason.' Qom lawmaker Mohammad Manan Raeisi called the president's remarks 'humiliating.' The alignment between street chants and elite rhetoric — whether coordinated or coincidental — leaves Pezeshkian isolated between Trump's unconditional surrender demand, which he explicitly rejected , and a domestic political and military establishment that treats his attempt to de-escalate with neighbours as betrayal.

For foreign ministries assessing Iran's internal dynamics, the picture is a system in which the elected president lacks the authority to deliver on any diplomatic commitment he might make. Pezeshkian can neither accept Washington's terms nor persuade his own security apparatus to honour the more modest restraint he has publicly promised. The January crackdown , for which Pezeshkian later apologised , demonstrated that Iran's security forces operate independently of presidential authority in domestic matters. The current war is demonstrating the same independence in external affairs.

First Reported In

Update #27 · Israel kills 41 on failed 1986 airman raid

TRT World· 7 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Thousands march in Tehran under blackout
The demonstrations — whether spontaneous or IRGC-organised — show the visible Iranian public face of the war is not ready for de-escalation, narrowing the political space for any diplomatic off-ramp Pezeshkian might attempt.
Different Perspectives
Turkey (Shakarab consideration)
Turkey (Shakarab consideration)
Ankara serves as one of two Western-adjacent Iran back-channels while Turkish national Gholamreza Khani Shakarab faces imminent execution on espionage charges in Iran. President Erdogan cannot deflect the domestic political crisis that a Turkish execution would trigger, which would force suspension of the mediating role.
Germany (Bundestag gap)
Germany (Bundestag gap)
Belgium, Germany, Australia, and France committed Hormuz coalition hardware on 18 May. Germany's Bundestag authorisation for the coalition deployment remains pending, creating a constitutional gap between the commitment announced and the parliamentary mandate required to operationalise it.
IEA and oil market analysts
IEA and oil market analysts
The IEA's $106 May Brent projection met the market in one session on 20 May as Brent fell 5.16% on diplomatic optimism. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's two-layer premium framework holds: the kinetic component compressed; the structural insurance component tied to Lloyd's ROE remains unresolved.
Hengaw
Hengaw
Documented the dual Kurdish execution at Naqadeh on 21 May, the two Iraqi-national espionage executions on 20 May, and Gholamreza Khani Shakarab's imminent execution risk. The 24-hour cluster covers two executions at one facility, the first foreign-national espionage executions, and a Turkish national whose death would suspend Ankara's mediation.
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
Hull rates stand at 110-125% of vessel value on the secondary market; the Joint War Committee has conditioned cover reopening on written ROE from the coalition or PGSA. The Majlis rial bill makes any compliant ROE structurally impossible to draft while the PGSA's yuan portal remains its operational mechanism.
United Kingdom and France (Northwood coalition)
United Kingdom and France (Northwood coalition)
The 26-nation coalition paper requires Lloyd's to see written rules of engagement before Hormuz war-risk cover reopens. The Majlis rial bill adds a second governance incompatibility on top of the unpublished PGSA fee schedule; coalition ROE cannot mention rial without conceding Iranian sovereignty over the strait.