QatarEnergy halted the restart of its Ras Laffan export complex on Thursday 9 July, two days after a missile Qatar says Iran fired disabled the LNG carrier Al Rekayyat near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday 7 July12. Chief executive Saad al-Kaabi kept the terminal at minimum output, cut the number of vessels scheduled to dock, and extended force majeure notices to some Asian buyers into August3. Ras Laffan handles close to a fifth of the world's LNG, so a halt there reaches every hub that prices off the marginal cargo.
QatarEnergy's move reverses the guidance it gave at the start of July, when it still expected to reach 50% of capacity within a month against a ceiling set by escort-convoy capacity rather than diplomacy. Two trains destroyed in the March strikes had already capped any recovery near 83% of pre-conflict nameplate. al-Kaabi has now removed the floor beneath that cap, taking expected barrels out of the forward balance rather than adding them to it.
That withdrawn volume routes east regardless of where Europe needs it. The JKM-TTF arbitrage has held an Asia premium of roughly 1.4 to 2.4 USD/MMBtu through the run-up, wide enough to pull marginal Atlantic cargoes towards Northeast Asia rather than into European injection. Europe loses the swing cargo at the same moment Qatar stops adding to the pool, in the middle of the season when storage most needs it.
