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European Oil Markets
18JUN

Hormuz tankers hit pre-war daily range

2 min read
12:45UTC

Al Jazeera counted 35 tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday 2 July, the first pre-war-typical daily total of the conflict, though its seven-day moving average still trails last year.

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Key takeaway

Thirty-five tankers cleared Hormuz on 2 July, but the seven-day average still trails last year.

Al Jazeera counted 35 tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday 2 July, the first daily total back inside the pre-war-typical range since the conflict began 1. The broadcaster paired the count with a "has the oil shortage turned into a glut?" framing that moved quickly across trading desks.

Al Jazeera's own seven-day moving average still sits below last year's level, one strong session rather than a durable recovery. The Washington-Tehran arrangement runs on a 60-day interim transit-negotiation window dated from the 17 June memorandum, fragile by both sides' account.

IMF PortWatch put Hormuz transits at roughly a third of pre-crisis levels on its 3 July reading , so the day-count optimism and the underlying seven-day trend pull in opposite directions 2. That divergence, not the single session, is what a transit-exposed book prices.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Thirty-five oil tankers left the Strait of Hormuz on 2 July, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman that carries about a fifth of the world's oil. That single-day count looks almost normal. But averaged over the whole week, and according to the IMF's own ship-tracking service, traffic is still running at only about a third of pre-conflict levels. Think of it like a motorway that clears after roadworks: one fast-moving lorry does not mean the jam has gone. Insurers and oil traders watch the weekly average, not the best day, because a single busy day can just mean a backlog of ships was let through together.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The 60-day US-Iran incident-avoidance understanding, established in Geneva on 21 June, expires around 20 August. The 2 July count sits closer to the start of that window than its expiry, so a single strong day says little about whether transit holds once the informal arrangement lapses.

IMF PortWatch's own early-July baseline already put daily transits at 27 to 43 against an 84 pre-crisis norm, so the 2 July count of 35 sits inside a range PortWatch had already logged, not a new trend; a single Thursday count can just as easily reflect a bunched convoy release as a genuine change in the underlying escort-clearance rate.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A single strong transit day is not yet evidence of durable recovery, since IMF PortWatch's own rolling measure still shows roughly two-thirds of capacity missing.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    The 60-day Geneva incident-avoidance window closes around 20 August; a transit recovery built on informal Iranian forbearance rather than a legal settlement could reverse abruptly once that window lapses.

    Medium term · Reported
  • Precedent

    Kpler and Windward's differing read on daily-versus-averaged transit data will likely recur at every future Hormuz recovery milestone, since neither tracker has adjusted its methodology to the current convoy-bunching pattern.

    Short term · Suggested
Sources:Al Jazeera·IMF PortWatch·IMF PortWatch
Mentions:Strait of Hormuz →Al Jazeera →IMF PortWatch →Kpler →Iran →Abqaiq-Khurais →Saudi Aramco →Geneva →Tehran →Windward →Oman →Washington →
First Reported In

Update #24 · Hormuz tanker rebound is no LNG relief

Al Jazeera· 6 Jul 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Hormuz stand-down has not reopened the strait
The 2 July tanker rebound follows IMF PortWatch's 3 July reading of Hormuz transits still at roughly a third of pre-crisis levels.
Occurred 3 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
Hormuz tankers hit pre-war daily range
A transit-exposed desk prices the seven-day trend, and that trend still trails 2025 even as the single-day count returns to range.
Different Perspectives
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