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European Oil Markets
4JUN

US Oil Sanctions Waiver Expires 11 April Amid Confusion

2 min read
10:20UTC

OFAC's GL 134A expires 11 April; at $121 per barrel, any extension would hand Russia far more revenue than when the waiver was issued at $73, while simultaneous vessel desanctioning created contradictory signals.

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Key takeaway

GL 134A expiry on 11 April is the binary choice: extension at $121/barrel or lapse compounding Russia's crisis.

OFAC issued General License 134 on 12 March, covering the roughly 124 million barrels of Russian crude at sea , amended it to GL 134A on 19 March, and faces a binary decision on its 11 April expiry. At $73 per barrel when issued, the waiver was defensible as market stabilisation. At $121, the same licence authorises far greater per-barrel income than its design contemplated.

OFAC added Iran, North Korea, and Cuba exclusions to GL 134A one week after the original licence, a rapid amendment suggesting Treasury received evidence that cargoes were being redirected toward sanctioned parties. On 31 March, OFAC separately removed sanctions on three Russian cargo vessels: Fesco Magadan, Fesco Moneron, and SV Nikolay.

The contradictory pattern, tightening the licence's terms while reducing pressure on named Russian vessels, is consistent with an administration managing competing objectives across the Iran war and Ukraine simultaneously. The Atlantic Council warned that extension at current prices "risks sustaining Russia's war effort."

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US government gave Russia a special oil sales exemption that expires on 11 April. When it was issued, oil prices were around $73 per barrel. Now that the Iran war has pushed prices to $121, extending the same exemption would hand Russia much more money than originally intended. At the same time, the US removed sanctions on three Russian ships while tightening the exemption's rules — sending confusing signals about American policy toward Russia.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    GL 134A extension at $121/barrel would constitute the largest single US-authorised revenue transfer to Russia since sanctions began.

Sources:Mayer Brown
Mentions:Moscow →Ukraine →Iran →Urals →North Korea →Russia →OFAC →Atlantic Council →
First Reported In

Update #11 · Russia Sells Less Oil but Earns More

Mayer Brown· 5 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
US Oil Sanctions Waiver Expires 11 April Amid Confusion
The GL 134A expiry is a binary US policy signal: extension at $121 per barrel directly subsidises Moscow's war revenue; lapse combined with Baltic terminal damage would compound Russia's export crisis.
Led to
Treasury kills $150M-a-day Russian oil waiver
At $121 Urals the waiver was running 2.6x above the $73 barrel design price, making non-renewal a structural inevitability.
Occurred 16 Apr 2026
Read story →
GL 134A lapses toward quiet extension
GL 134A event is the direct resolution of ID:2027's binary-choice framing: extension at $121/bbl or lapse on the 11 April expiry date.
Occurred 11 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait absorbed the Iranian strike that knocked generating units offline at a combined power-and-desalination plant on 17 July, the event that finally moved freight and insurance in lockstep with Brent. The strike hit essential civilian infrastructure, not a trading desk's benchmark.
Asian buyers (Singapore)
Asian buyers (Singapore)
Singapore's middle distillates rose 12% month-to-date to 8.91m barrels and fuel oil passed 19m barrels on a 105% net-import surge, buyers retaining barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrows. Cargoes are being stockpiled ahead of further Hormuz-driven freight repricing rather than released west.
Austria (Coreper holdout)
Austria (Coreper holdout)
Vienna is blocking the same package over roughly EUR 2bn of frozen Russian assets earmarked for Raiffeisen, a domestic banking dispute with no connection to the oil cap racing toward its 23 July expiry. The linkage forces the whole package to wait on a bilateral compensation fight.
Greece (Coreper holdout)
Greece (Coreper holdout)
Athens is holding the 21st sanctions package at the 22 July Coreper vote over Russian LNG re-export rights, a condition unrelated to the oil price cap itself, leaving the $44.10 freeze one day from expiry without a deal. Greece's own tanker registry gives it a direct stake in how any shadow-fleet measures are drafted.
Marine underwriters (Gulf war-risk)
Marine underwriters (Gulf war-risk)
Hull war-risk cover for Hormuz transits widened to a 3-10% band on 17 July with 5% the emerging norm, up from a 3-4% baseline set in late June, the first repricing in six weeks to track a flat-price move rather than lag it. Cover resets on actuarial evidence of loss, not on diplomatic or price signals.
Money managers (CFTC-tracked)
Money managers (CFTC-tracked)
The CFTC's week-to-14-July snapshot, released 17 July, showed WTI managed-money net long collapsing 69% to 19,783 contracts and a standalone 60,141-contract net short on Brent Last Day (NYMEX). Both readings predate the Kuwait strike and the 20 July escalation, so any covering since is not yet visible in public data.